Statistics · Cycles & signals

Bitcoin Cycle

Bitcoin has historically run the same roughly 4-year rhythm: one year down, then several years up - each around the halving. Here the 3 complete cycles are overlaid by halving (each indexed to its price at the halving). Currently, day 826 after the halving: by cycle timing the "Bear" phase, by price (1-year return -45 %) Capitulation. Only 3 comparison cycles - a pattern, not a forecast.

Phase · timing

Bear

day 826 post-halving

Market · price (1y)

Capitulation

1-year return -45 %

Since halving

×0.99

$64,137

Analog outlook +6M

×0.83

range ×0.81-×0.93

Cycles compared

Each line is one cycle, aligned to its halving (day 0) and indexed to the price on that day - so cycles at very different price levels are comparable. The bold line is the current cycle; the shaded field is the analog cone from the earlier cycles.

Hover for day, date & × per cycle.

Current cycle (2024)3 past cycles (2012 / 16 / 20)Analog cone - not a forecastNOW (day 826)

X-axis: years since the halving (0 = halving; current cycle: Apr 2024). Y-axis: price relative to the price at the halving (× = multiple, log) - so every cycle starts at ×1 and is comparable. The tinted fields mark the 4 cycle phases.

On the analog cone

The cone only projects how the 3 complete cycles continued from today's point (lowest/median/highest path), relative to the current price. These are 3 examples - not a probability distribution and certainly not a forecast. Past cycles need not repeat.

Methodology & data

Daily closes from our own price database (USD historically real, since 2010). Cycles are halving-aligned: x = days since the halving, y = price divided by the price at the halving (log scale). The four phases (bear/pre-bull/1st/2nd bull) are fixed day-windows relative to the halving - a labelling convention, not a top/bottom detector. "Market · price" instead measures: the 1-year return (price vs 365 days ago) - capitulation at ≤ -35%, euphoria at ≥ +100%, sideways in between (a full year of price smooths the usual mid-trend corrections); fixed thresholds age with the returns that diminish across cycles. The cone = min/median/max of the complete cycles from the current day, scaled to today's price. Not financial advice.

Frequently asked questions

01What is the Bitcoin 4-year cycle?

Roughly every four years the "halving" cuts the rate of new Bitcoin issuance in half. Historically a recurring pattern of bear market, accumulation and two upward phases followed. Whether it repeats is uncertain.

02Which phase is Bitcoin in right now?

Two views: by cycle timing (day 826) the "Bear" phase - a fixed day-window, not a detector. By price, the 1-year return (-45 %) measures the actual market: currently Capitulation (capitulation below -35%, euphoria above +100%). Timing labels the cycle clock; price measures.

03Is the analog cone a price forecast?

No. The cone only shows how the 3 previous cycles continued from this point (min-median-max, relative to today's price). With only 3 comparisons it is an illustration, not a prediction.

04Is this financial advice?

No. Only historical price statistics from our own database. Not a recommendation.