Bitcoin Expected to Decline Through 2026 Despite Growing Payment Infrastructure, Analysts Say

Bitcoin appears headed for a challenging 2026, with analysts forecasting continued price declines from late 2025 levels, even as the cryptocurrency's real-world utility and payment infrastructure show signs of significant advancement.

Bitcoin Price Forecast Points to Q4 2026 Bottom

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) may bottom out at approximately $60,000 in the fourth quarter of 2026, according to early Bitcoin investor Michael Terpin ^[1]. "The end of 2026 will be a great time to buy, as market lows based on fear slowly give way to massive buying in 2028 and 2029 after the next halving leads to potential supply shock," Terpin forecasted ^[1].

Bitcoin still has about a 20% chance of forming new highs before the cycle low, but these odds are dropping with each passing month, Terpin said ^[1]. The year 2025 was widely forecast to be seismic for Bitcoin's price, with several analysts forecasting BTC from $180,000 to $250,000 by year-end, while BTC is on track to close the year at a lower price than the highs above $100,000 recorded in January ^[1].

However, some analysts remain optimistic about 2026. Citigroup analysts forecast a base case BTC price target of $143,000 and a bull case of $189,000 in 2026 ^[2]. Additionally, analyst The ₿itcoin Therapist expects BTC to hit a new all-time high as early as the first quarter of 2026 ^[2].

Macroeconomic and Political Factors

A new Federal Reserve chair should ease macroeconomic conditions by lowering interest rates, Terpin noted, but if the Republican Party fails to secure both chambers of Congress in the 2026 US midterm elections, it will "cripple" the pro-crypto regulatory environment ^[1].

BitMEX cofounder Arthur Hayes said in a post on X that crypto could pump as dollar liquidity is moving higher after bottoming out in November ^[2]. Market intelligence platform Santiment indicated there is "an opportunity for crypto to play catch-up" after Bitcoin lagged behind gold and the S&P 500 since November ^[2].

Payment Infrastructure Poised for Growth

Despite price pressures, 2026 could mark a turning point for Bitcoin's practical applications. "2025 made Bitcoin easier to hold and earn yield on," said early Bitcoin adopter and blockchain software developer Rich Rines. "2026 should make it easier to actually use" ^[1].

Bitcoin neobanks, digital infrastructure companies that provide online banking services, and Bitcoin-backed stablecoins will boost Bitcoin's use as a medium of exchange, Rines said ^[1]. Payments company Square integrated Bitcoin payments into its point of sale systems, allowing merchants to accept BTC as payment and automatically convert 1% of their total sales to BTC, if desired ^[1].

The Bitcoin Lightning Network, a layer-2 scaling solution that allows BTC to be used for payments, could capture 5% of stablecoin flows by 2028, according to Graham Krizek, founder of Lightning Network payment company Voltage ^[1].

Altcoin Technical Outlook

Bitcoin has been stuck inside the $86,400 to $90,600 range, indicating a balance between supply and demand ^[2]. Several major altcoins are showing signs of starting a short-term recovery ^[2].

For XRP, on-chain data shows that the amount of XRP on cryptocurrency exchanges has declined significantly in recent weeks, reaching its lowest level since 2018 ^[3]. In short periods, billions of XRP were withdrawn from trading platforms, suggesting increased movement to cold storage or investment products ^[3]. XRP has been trading in a narrow range between $1.87 and $1.88 over the past 12 to 24 hours ^[3].

Ether (ETH) bulls are attempting to start a relief rally by pushing the price above the 50-day simple moving average of $3,019 ^[2]. Other major altcoins including BNB, Solana, Dogecoin, Cardano, Bitcoin Cash, Chainlink, and Hyperliquid are also showing various technical patterns suggesting potential short-term movements ^[2].