MSCI Bitcoin Index Decision Looms as BlackRock Transfers Spark Market Concerns

Major Index Decision Could Reshape Corporate Bitcoin Strategy

The investment world awaits a pivotal decision from MSCI Inc. on January 15 regarding whether companies holding substantial Bitcoin reserves will be removed from its global equity indexes, a move that could trigger billions in forced selling and influence how Wall Street perceives Bitcoin as a corporate treasury asset ^[2].

MSCI, a New York-based index provider with a market capitalization of $43.76 billion, manages over 246,000 equity indexes daily, with more than $18.3 trillion in assets under management benchmarked to these indices ^[2]. The firm's October 10, 2025 consultation proposal suggested excluding companies with 50% or more of their assets in digital currencies from its Global Investable Market Indexes, arguing such firms operate more like investment funds than traditional operating businesses ^[2].

The proposal named 39 companies, including prominent Bitcoin holders Strategy and Metaplanet ^[2]. Bitcoin experienced a sharp intraday decline of approximately $12,000 on the day of the announcement, marking the beginning of a broader price correction ^[2].

Estimated Impact and Industry Pushback

JPMorgan analysts estimated in late November that the policy change could trigger $2.8 billion in outflows from Strategy alone, with total forced selling potentially reaching $10 billion to $15 billion over a year if other index providers adopted similar policies ^[2]. Bitcoin for Corporations (BFC), a coalition promoting corporate Bitcoin adoption, estimates the total impact could reach up to $8.8 billion if multiple index providers implement comparable restrictions ^[2].

BFC responded by launching a detailed opposition campaign, including a website outlining technical flaws in the proposal and gathering over 1,500 signatures on a letter delivered to MSCI on December 30 ^[2]. Eight of the 39 affected companies are BFC members ^[2].

"We had a very constructive conversation," said George Mekhail, BFC's executive director, following discussions with MSCI leadership. "I think they were very much still in a listening and learning posture. I think a lot of this just really has to do with a lack of education and understanding of Bitcoin itself, as well as these Bitcoin treasury companies and the significance of their operating businesses" ^[2].

Mekhail noted the proposal appeared driven by genuine analytical concerns rather than hostility, potentially triggered by Metaplanet's recent preferred share issuance ^[2]. Polymarket bettors currently assign a 77% probability to Strategy's delisting from MSCI by March 31 ^[2].

BlackRock Transfers Amid Sustained ETF Outflows

Separately, BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, transferred 1,134 BTC (approximately $101 million) and 7,255 ETH (around $22 million) to Coinbase, raising market speculation about potential selling activity ^[1].

These transfers occurred following significant year-end outflows from cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds. On December 31, Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $348.1 million, while Ethereum ETFs experienced $72.1 million in withdrawals ^[1]. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF saw $99 million in outflows, and its Ethereum ETF lost approximately $21.5 million ^[1].

Bitcoin ETFs have experienced outflows in eight of the last nine trading days, while Ethereum ETFs recorded withdrawals in five of the last six days ^[1]. Analysts cautioned that continued outflows could push Bitcoin below the critical $90,000 threshold, potentially opening the door for deeper corrections ^[1].

Despite negative ETF flows, Glassnode reported that long-term Bitcoin holders have ceased selling, helping BTC recover from around $88,300 to above $89,600 ^[1]. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization climbed back above $3 trillion, with several altcoins posting gains ^[1].

Critical Juncture for Corporate Bitcoin Adoption

The MSCI decision, due January 15 with potential implementation on February 1, presents three possible outcomes: full implementation, a delay for additional review, or complete withdrawal of the proposal ^[2]. Mekhail characterized withdrawal as "the most bullish outcome," suggesting it would validate corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies ^[2].

The consultation period closed December 31, 2025, with industry pushback described as robust and visible, featuring no major groups publicly supporting the proposal ^[2]. Opposition letters came from Strategy founder Michael Saylor's firm, Strive Asset Management, and investor Bill Miller ^[2].