Bitcoin Between Bear Market Fears and December Hopes: Analysts Warn of Bull Trap

Divided Opinions on Bitcoin Development in December

The Bitcoin community appears uncertain about the further price development of the world's most valuable cryptocurrency. A non-representative survey by BTC-ECHO with over 6,000 participants reveals a narrow split: 47 percent of respondents expect a year-end rally, while 45 percent no longer believe in a reversal ^[2].

However, while hopes for rising prices persist, warnings from technical analysts about a possible crash are mounting.

Technical Analysts See Bear Flag as Warning Signal

Multiple market observers have identified a classic technical pattern indicating further price losses: the so-called bear flag. Analysts such as Mister Crypto and Caleb Franzen point out that Bitcoin could easily fall toward $80,000 ^[1].

A detailed analysis of the bear flag yields a technical downside target for December of approximately $77,100. This figure is calculated by adding the height of the previous downtrend to a potential breakout point near the $88,000 support level ^[1].

Historical Fractals Warn of Drastic Crash

Particularly alarming are the parallels to 2021 that multiple analysts are drawing. Analyst Leshka observes that the current Bitcoin structure "exactly" mirrors the 2021 cycle ^[1]. The pattern consists of a recurring double-top formation, a sharp break into cycle support, and a deceptive recovery that ultimately formed a bull trap.

In the 2021 analog, this trap led to a sustained decline that halved Bitcoin's value. Leshka warns that Bitcoin could retest the $40,000 region in early 2026—a decline of more than 50 percent from current levels ^[1].

Analyst Alex Wacy also confirms this downside target, pointing to Bitcoin's retreat from its multi-year ascending trendline resistance, which typically leads to losses of 70 percent ^[1].

Google Search Data Signals Market Fear

Another concerning indicator emerges in Google search data. Searches for "Bitcoin bear market" reached an all-time high on a five-year basis last week ^[1]. Analyst AndrewBTC comments: "The masses are scared again" ^[1].

Historically, these fears occurred shortly before Bitcoin market selloffs—such as in May 2021, when BTC traded at $60,000 before a correction of over 50 percent followed, and in June 2022 at $26,000 before Bitcoin fell to the then-cycle low of around $15,450 ^[1].

AndrewBTC warns that while Bitcoin could slightly rise toward $97,000, this would only serve to lure bulls into a trap. "Everyone will think the bull market is back, but it's not, and the bear market is beginning," the analyst states ^[1].

Fed Decision as Key Factor

A crucial event for short-term price development is the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting scheduled for this week. On Wednesday, the Fed will decide on possible interest rate cuts ^[2].

Long-term, low interest rates are considered positive for risky assets like Bitcoin, as companies can borrow more cheaply and more liquidity becomes available. However, on-chain data shows that Bitcoin came under pressure at least in the short term during the last Fed rate decisions ^[2].