Bitcoin Between Market Risks and Macro Opportunities: Strategy Removal Could Trigger Forced Selling

Strategy Stock as Risk Factor for Bitcoin Market

The Bitcoin market may be facing one of its greatest challenges this cycle. Index provider MSCI published a consultation on October 10, 2024, that could result in the exclusion of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) from major indices such as the MSCI World and Nasdaq 100 ^[1]. This seemingly administrative procedure harbors considerable disruption potential for the entire crypto market.

Analysts warn of forced selling totaling up to $8.8 billion should Strategy actually be removed from major indices ^[1]. October 10 already marked the most severe liquidation day in crypto industry history, with positions worth over $20 billion liquidated and more than 1.6 million traders forced to close positions ^[1]. The MSCI consultation could be an underestimated cause of these market turbulences.

Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, disputed the concerns by arguing: "We are not a fund" ^[1]. Nevertheless, the situation remains a "systemically relevant risk" until the decisive date of January 15, 2026, which could keep the industry on edge ^[1].

Historical Patterns: How Declining Inflation Influences Bitcoin

Parallel to these acute risks, historical analysis demonstrates that periods of declining inflation traditionally create positive framework conditions for Bitcoin. The crypto asset fulfills two distinct roles: as a store of value with fixed supply and as a high-risk technology asset heavily influenced by liquidity and market sentiment ^[2].

Three Defining Cycles

The years 2013-2015 marked the emergence of the "digital gold" narrative. Following the first major price surge in 2013, global inflation fell, and Bitcoin underwent a prolonged consolidation phase during which the fundamental narrative as a long-term store of value took shape ^[2].

During the 2018-2019 phase, inflation cooled after the 2017 boom while central banks tightened monetary policy. Although prices remained largely within a range, U.S. financial institutions began exploring Bitcoin as an uncorrelated portfolio hedge, with custody services and futures markets being launched ^[2].

The current 2022-2024 cycle differs fundamentally from earlier phases. After inflation reached a 41-year high in 2022 and cooled again in 2023-2024, Bitcoin evolved into a macro-sensitive asset. Bitcoin spot ETFs, institutional inflows, and tokenization narratives have fundamentally altered market behavior ^[2].

Cooling Inflation as a Double-Edged Sword

Declining inflation lowers discount rates and increases the present value of scarce assets with long time horizons. It improves overall liquidity, reduces economic uncertainty, and fosters institutional investment ^[2]. Historically, four characteristic behavioral patterns emerged: increased volatility at the beginning of the cooling phase, strong rallies once rate cuts become likely, initially higher correlation with technology stocks and trend reversals that often begin before the inflation bottom ^[2].

Nevertheless, experts warn against excessive optimism. Past cycles demonstrated that temporary inflation declines have been followed by renewed increases, and sudden regulatory measures can overshadow positive macro trends ^[2]. The current cycle differs fundamentally from previous phases through the existence of spot Bitcoin ETFs, advanced tokenization, and improved understanding of Bitcoin's response to liquidity conditions ^[2].