Bitcoin Breaks Through $90,000 Mark: Macroeconomic Uncertainty Dampens Further Upward Momentum

Cryptocurrency Climbs Despite Subdued Market Sentiment

Bitcoin crossed the psychologically important $90,000 mark over the weekend, reaching its highest level since December 12 ^[1]. The cryptocurrency gained 3.2 percent over two days ^[1], with prices fluctuating between $89,314 and $90,481 ^[2]. Despite this recovery, professional investors remain cautious about the outlook ahead.

Bitcoin's current market capitalization stands at approximately $1.8 trillion ^[2]. Traders are now questioning whether there is enough momentum to reach the $95,000 threshold for the first time in seven weeks ^[1].

Macroeconomic Concerns Dampen Risk Appetite

The overall economic situation is significantly dampening investor optimism. Although the S&P 500 is trading just 1.3 percent below its all-time high, concerns about deteriorating economic conditions are growing ^[1]. Particularly troubling were weak sales figures from electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla: the company delivered 418,227 vehicles in the fourth quarter—a 15 percent decline from the previous year's figure of 495,570 units ^[1]. Tesla's stock subsequently fell 2.5 percent and now sits 12.2 percent below its peak ^[1].

The technology-heavy Nasdaq index is grappling with conflicting signals between optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and risks from weaker labor market data ^[1]. Inflation remains a central concern, especially as the U.S. government plans tax cuts to stimulate the economy ^[1].

Institutional Investors Cautiously Return

Two significant headwinds for Bitcoin dissipated at year-end. Many U.S. investors deliberately realized losses from cryptocurrencies in late 2024 to offset their substantial gains from a strong stock year through so-called "tax-loss harvesting" ^[2]. Additionally, large institutional investors such as pension funds often engage in "window dressing" at year-end, selling poorly performing positions like Bitcoin ETFs to present a better portfolio picture to clients ^[2].

Derivatives Markets Signal Continued Skepticism

Despite the price recovery, demand for leveraged Bitcoin positions remains subdued. The futures basis rate on Friday fell below the neutral threshold, indicating a lack of confidence among bulls ^[1]. The current annualized premium of four percent over spot markets reflects concerns that U.S. import tariffs could burden the entire economy ^[1].

In the options market, put options were trading at a premium on Saturday as professional traders demanded higher compensation for downside risks ^[1]. Although this indicator remains in the neutral range between minus six and plus six percent, it is far from turning bullish ^[1].

Bitcoin ETFs Record Massive Outflows

Selling pressure in Bitcoin spot ETFs reinforces investors' cautious stance. Since December 15, these products have recorded net outflows exceeding $900 million ^[1]. In contrast, gold ETFs have seen inflows for seven consecutive weeks, possibly indicating weaker confidence in U.S. economic growth amid rising concerns about the government's fiscal situation ^[1].

Technical Analysis Shows Cautious Optimism

From a technical perspective, the short-term outlook remains slightly bullish. The price is trading above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA-20) at $89,137 and has shown a sequence of higher highs and lows since mid-December ^[2]. The Relative Strength Index stands at 60.2, placing it in bullish but not yet overbought territory ^[2].

The first support level is at the Fibonacci level of $88,155, followed by the lower Bollinger Band at $87,063 ^[2]. Immediate resistance is located at the last significant high of $90,962 ^[2]. A sustained breakout above this level would increase the probability of a bullish continuation, while a break below $87,000 could increase short-term volatility and trigger bearish scenarios ^[2].

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, bond markets are pricing in only a 16 percent probability that interest rates will fall to 3.25 percent or below by April ^[1]. For now, Bitcoin derivatives traders are not expecting further price gains, and confidence is likely to rebuild only gradually after a month-long consolidation near $89,000 ^[1].