Bitcoin Climbs Above $94K as Market Eyes FOMC Meeting Amid Mixed Liquidity Signals

Bitcoin Breaks Key Resistance Level

Bitcoin has surged above $94,000 after breaking through a critical resistance level at $93,500, marking a significant shift in short-term market sentiment as traders await the Federal Reserve's upcoming FOMC meeting decision^[1].

The cryptocurrency struggled for several days to secure a decisive daily close above $93,000 following an initial break in market structure on December 3. The broader market had adopted a cautious wait-and-see stance in anticipation of the FOMC meeting, resulting in sideways consolidation^[1].

The breakthrough on Tuesday produced the higher high needed to restore short-term bullish momentum, according to technical analysis. On the four-hour chart, BTC had previously absorbed the entire fair value gap between $87,500 and $90,000 but failed to trigger a follow-up impulse before this latest breakout^[1].

Technical Indicators Show Mixed Signals

Despite the upside movement, Bitcoin continues to trade near the monthly volume-weighted average price (VWAP) on both four-hour and one-day timeframes. A sustained hold above the monthly VWAP following the FOMC meeting would further confirm a momentum-backed trend reversal^[1].

According to technical analysis on the 3-day timeframe, BTC is currently sitting just above the 200 Simple Moving Average at $88,821, which is acting as immediate support^[2]. The cryptocurrency is trading above the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $85,270 but below the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $93,897^[2].

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be recovering from the oversold region of 30 to its current level of 35, suggesting buyers may be regaining control of the market^[2].

Trader Jelle commented on the recent price action: "Pretty boring day so far, with $BTC still chopping around the monthly open… Watch for a lower low below 87.6 or a clean break of the grey box at 93k."^[1]

Liquidity Concerns Temper Bullish Outlook

While Bitcoin's price action appears bullish, liquidity metrics are not yet signaling full market confidence. Bitcoin's bid-ask ratio has remained relatively low and inconsistent throughout the recent rally^[1].

During November's steep decline from $100,000 to $80,000, the ratio turned positive as large bids absorbed the sell-off. However, the current rebound has not shown the same aggressive bidding behavior, suggesting that the move above $93,500 is primarily price-led, with new demand still catching up^[1].

Price Outlook and Key Levels

If buyers successfully defend the 200 SMA level, a rebound toward the 0.618 Fibonacci zone near $94,000 to $100,000 is possible, with a stronger bullish extension potentially targeting the 50 SMA around $109,000^[2]. A decisive breakout above that region could reopen the path toward Bitcoin's previous all-time high near $125,000^[2].

However, if the Bitcoin price falls below the 200 SMA and fails to reclaim the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $85,200, downside pressure may intensify. In that scenario, the price could revisit the lower Fibonacci boundary near $74,000, where a larger demand zone exists^[2].

With $93,000 now cleared ahead of the FOMC event, market bias leans toward the upside, though traders remain sensitive to potential post-meeting volatility^[1].