Bitcoin Closes 2025 in the Red Despite October All-Time High as Market Awaits New Catalysts

Year-End Performance Falls Short

Bitcoin concluded 2025 trading at approximately $88,000, closing slightly below the previous year's levels despite a strong start to the year ^[1]. The leading cryptocurrency reached an all-time high of around $125,000 in October ^[1], but momentum faded significantly in the final quarter.

Both Bitcoin and Ether lost more than 20 percent in the fourth quarter as volatility increased following a robust first half marked by strong ETF inflows ^[1]. The cryptocurrency market experienced a quiet phase overall in 2025, with new highs quickly sold off after being reached ^[1].

Underperforming Major Asset Classes

Since the start of November, Bitcoin has significantly underperformed other major asset classes. Gold has risen 9 percent, the S&P 500 index gained 1 percent, while Bitcoin declined 20 percent during the same period ^[2]. As of Wednesday, Bitcoin was trading around $88,000 ^[2].

"The correlation between Bitcoin & crypto compared to other major sectors is still lagging behind," analysts from market intelligence platform Santiment stated in an X post on Tuesday ^[2]. However, they added that "Heading to 2026, there will remain an opportunity for crypto to play catch-up" ^[2].

Macroeconomic Headwinds

The cryptocurrency market faced several macroeconomic challenges throughout the year. Uncertainty dominated regarding tariff policies and the interest rate trajectory of the US Federal Reserve ^[1]. Inconsistent signals about possible interest rate adjustments in 2026, rising real interest rates, and high inflation expectations weighed on risk assets overall ^[1].

Whale Accumulation Patterns Shift

Large cryptocurrency holders significantly slowed their accumulation in the second half of 2025, according to Santiment data ^[2]. "The second half of 2025 was dominated by aggressive accumulation by the small wallets, while large wallets essentially stayed flat, rising up to the Oct ATH, then selling," the analytics platform reported ^[2].

Long-term Bitcoin holders have also stopped selling for the first time in six months, after reducing their positions from 14.8 million coins in mid-July to 14.3 million in December ^[2]. "Historically, the best recipe for a bear pattern to flip to a bullish one is when large wallets accumulate, and retail dumps," Santiment analysts noted ^[2].

Technical Indicators Show Consolidation

Bitcoin has been trading in a consolidation phase after hitting a key support area around the $81,000 zone in late November ^[3]. The cryptocurrency is currently showing signs of indecision, with the Relative Strength Index trading between the 40-50 zone at 47.89 ^[3].

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive on the daily timeframe, with green bars on the histogram rising above the neutral line, confirming increased positive momentum ^[3]. However, Bitcoin remains below both its 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages, which formed a death cross at $110,404 ^[3].

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe, with over 816,000 followers on X, noted that Bitcoin is currently testing the 21-day moving average around $88,300 on the daily chart, suggesting that a close above this level could indicate a sustained bullish rally ^[3].

Outlook for 2026

The market remains cautious as it awaits new catalysts. It will likely become clearer in 2026 how liquidity, macroeconomic data, and conditions in derivatives markets will develop ^[1]. Data from on-chain analytics platform Nansen shows that the number of active Bitcoin addresses has risen 5.51 percent in the last 24 hours, while transactions declined nearly 30 percent ^[2].