Bitcoin Derivatives Market Shows Mixed Signals as US Selling Pressure Intensifies

Futures Open Interest Rebounds After Sharp Decline

Bitcoin's derivatives market is displaying contradictory signals as futures open interest recovers from multi-month lows while US-based selling pressure reaches levels not seen since early 2024.

Futures open interest has climbed nearly 13% since the beginning of the year, potentially indicating renewed risk appetite among crypto traders ^[1]. According to data from Coinglass, open interest rose from an eight-month low of $54 billion on January 1 to more than $61 billion by January 19, with an eight-week peak of $66 billion recorded on January 15 ^[1].

The recovery follows a significant deleveraging period between October and December, during which Bitcoin derivatives exposure contracted alongside a broader market correction ^[1]. Over those three months, Bitcoin futures open interest fell 17.5% from 381,000 BTC to 314,000 BTC, coinciding with a roughly 36% price decline from early October ^[1].

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost characterized the decline as "reflecting a phase of risk reduction and the unwinding of leveraged positions" ^[1]. The analyst noted that open interest currently shows "signs of a gradual recovery, suggesting a slow return of risk appetite," though cautioned that "for now the rebound remains relatively modest" ^[1].

Options Overtake Futures in Notable Shift

In a significant market development, Bitcoin options open interest has surpassed futures open interest for the first time, according to Coin Bureau co-founder and CEO Nic Puckrin ^[1]. Checkonchain data shows aggregate Bitcoin options open interest across all exchanges now stands at $75 billion, compared to $61 billion for futures in notional value ^[1].

This structural shift carries important implications for market behavior. While futures represent direct leveraged bets that can result in forced liquidations when prices move against traders, options provide the right without the obligation to buy or sell at predetermined strike prices, avoiding forced liquidations ^[1].

"This means big money is building positions that shape price itself through hedging and expiry mechanics. It isn't just betting up or down anymore," Puckrin explained ^[1]. He suggested the change would result in "fewer liquidation cascades, more sticky levels, and retail leverage getting trapped near key prices," with Bitcoin's market "behaving less like a casino and more like a structured financial system" ^[1].

Currently, the highest concentration of options open interest sits at the $100,000 strike price, with $2 billion on Deribit alone ^[1].

US Selling Pressure Reaches One-Year High

Despite the recovery in derivatives activity, Bitcoin is experiencing intense selling pressure from US-based traders. The Coinbase Premium Gap dropped to approximately −63.85 on its 30-day average, marking the lowest level since January 2025 ^[2]. That previous reading preceded a Bitcoin price decline to roughly $78,350 from above $102,000 over four months ^[2].

The Coinbase Premium Gap measures the price differential between Bitcoin's USD pair on Coinbase and its USDT pair on Binance ^[2]. A deeply negative gap indicates Bitcoin is trading at lower prices on Coinbase, suggesting US traders are selling more aggressively than their international counterparts ^[2].

Notably, the recent CPG low formed during a US market holiday when spot Bitcoin ETFs were inactive, indicating the selling originated from US whales operating outside traditional funds rather than from ETF outflows, according to analyst Mignolet ^[2].

Technical Pattern Suggests Further Downside Risk

Bitcoin's price chart has formed a rising wedge pattern, a technical formation that frequently signals weakening upward momentum during corrective rebounds ^[2]. The pattern features higher lows within narrowing trendlines, reflecting diminishing buying conviction ^[2].

If the wedge support level breaks, Bitcoin faces potential downside targets in the $80,000-$78,000 range based on the pattern's height and recent historical price reactions ^[2].