Bitcoin Enters Bear Market Territory as Onchain Metrics Flash Warning Signals

Profitability Metrics Signal Market Shift

Bitcoin holders have begun realizing net losses for the first time since October 2023, marking a potential transition into bear market conditions according to fresh onchain data ^[1]. The net realized profit/loss metric, which tracks aggregate gains or losses when investors move coins onchain, has declined to 69,000 BTC over the past 30 days ^[1].

CryptoQuant analysts noted that "realized profits peaks have been declining since March 2024, an indication that prices are losing momentum as the bull market ends" ^[1]. Annual net realized profits have experienced a sharp contraction, falling from 4.4 million BTC in October to 2.5 million BTC, levels not seen since March 2022 ^[1].

The current profitability pattern bears striking similarities to the 2021-2022 bull-to-bear transition, when realized profits peaked in January 2021 and formed lower highs throughout the year before flipping into net losses ahead of the 2022 bear market ^[1]. Analyst Titan of Crypto highlighted a bearish cross from the MACD indicator in the two-month timeframe, noting that "historically, similar set-ups were followed by 50% - 64% drawdowns" ^[1].

Critical Support Levels Under Watch

Bitcoin has experienced a 9% drawdown from its 2026 high of $97,930 ^[1]. The cryptocurrency recently dropped below the 75th percentile cost basis at $92,940, with Glassnode warning that Bitcoin "now trades below the cost basis of 75% of supply, signalling rising distribution pressure" ^[1].

Trader Merlijn The Trader identified Bitcoin as "now back at the rising trendline support" between $89,000 and $90,000, cautioning that if this level fails, "we are likely to revisit the range lows" around $84,000 ^[1]. The Bitcoin cost basis distribution heatmap reveals that investors acquired approximately 941,651 BTC at this level over the past six months ^[1].

The next major support zone sits around $80,000, where over 127,000 BTC were previously acquired ^[1]. Trader Crypto Tony maintained a bearish outlook, stating "my bullish outlook still has our going down overall to $75,000 - $70,000 region, but we revisit $100,000 first" ^[2].

Bitcoin Stalls While Precious Metals Surge

Bitcoin remained trapped below $90,000 as gold approached the $5,000 per ounce milestone, reaching new highs of $4,967 ^[2]. The stark performance divergence has prompted analysts to describe Bitcoin as "unglaublich unterbertet gegenüber Gold" (incredibly undervalued against gold) ^[3].

While gold has climbed approximately 80 percent over the past twelve months, Bitcoin has fallen roughly 13 percent during the same period ^[3]. Analyst PlanC suggested this discrepancy represents "die größte und bedeutendste Unterbewertung in der Geschichte von Bitcoin, wenn man den Wert in Gold angibt" (the largest and most significant undervaluation in Bitcoin's history when measured in gold terms), potentially offering "eine historische Chance" (a historic opportunity) for long-term investors ^[3].

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, projected gold could trend between $12,000 to $23,000 over the coming three to eight years, citing record central bank gold accumulation and 10.5% annual fiat money supply inflation ^[2]. Edwards noted that "China has 10Xed their gold stack in the last 2 years alone" ^[2].

Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe identified $86,800 as a critical level, warning that if lost and not quickly reclaimed, "we'll start to see a test of the lows," while highlighting $91,000 as a crucial resistance level that could trigger "a strong surge" if broken ^[2].