Bitcoin ETFs Face Massive Outflows: Market Weakness Despite Technical Buy Signals

Historic Outflows Weigh on Bitcoin Price

US Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing turbulent times: Following a devastating November with net outflows of $3.8 billion – the worst month since the products launched in January 2024 ^[1] – the negative trend continues into December. Despite occasional positive days, BTC products lost an additional $149 million ^[1].

Bitcoin is currently trading around $93,950, significantly below its all-time high from early October ^[1]. Since the start of the year, the cryptocurrency has gained only one percent – by comparison, the S&P 500 rose 17 percent ^[1].

Federal Reserve Rate Decision as Uncertainty Factor

A decisive factor for future price development will likely be the upcoming interest rate decision by the US Federal Reserve. Traditionally, lower interest rates have a positive effect on Bitcoin and other risk assets ^[1]. However, should the Fed surprisingly refrain from lowering interest rates or signal a restrictive stance, further ETF outflows could follow.

Analysts from Bitfinex warn that Bitcoin is showing "relative weakness" against US equities, as spot demand is declining and investors are more sensitive to macroeconomic shocks ^[1].

Hash Ribbons Signal Buying Opportunity

Despite the pessimistic market sentiment, technical indicators paint a different picture: The so-called Hash Ribbons, a historically reliable indicator of miner performance, have generated a buy signal ^[2]. The indicator shows that the 30-day average of the hashrate has fallen below the 60-day average – a classic sign of miner capitulation ^[2].

"This does not mean you need to hurry" to buy, commented CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost. The indicator "highlights phases in which miners are under pressure" ^[2]. In the short term, such periods tend to be bearish, as miners are forced to sell more intensively to cover production costs. In the long term, however, these forced sales have "historically created very strong accumulation opportunities" ^[2].

Miners Reduce Bitcoin Holdings

The data confirms the selling pressure: Although miner BTC reserves remained largely stable through 2025, a sustained selling trend has been observed since early October. Known miner wallets held approximately 1.8 million BTC on Tuesday – 5,000 BTC less than on October 10 ^[2].

Technical Perspective

From a technical chart perspective, Bitcoin is moving between two important trendlines: Resistance lies at the year-opening rate of $93,300, which coincides with the 200-period simple moving average ^[2]. To the downside, the price finds support in the demand zone between $89,000 and $90,500, where the 50- and 100-period SMAs currently run ^[2].

The coming days will be crucial for Bitcoin: While institutional investors continue to withdraw capital, long-term oriented investors may see current price levels as a historic buying opportunity.