Bitcoin ETFs Record $1.42 Billion Weekly Inflows Amid Debate Over Market Recovery

Strong Weekly Performance Masks Ongoing Uncertainty

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $1.42 billion in net inflows over the past week, marking their strongest weekly performance since early October as institutional demand showed signs of rebuilding ^[1][2]. The influx comes as Bitcoin's price climbed to nearly $98,000, representing a more than 20 percent increase from its November low ^[1].

According to data from SoSoValue, the inflows peaked midweek, with Wednesday recording the largest single-day net inflow of approximately $844 million, followed by $754 million on Tuesday ^[2]. However, the week ended with a pullback, including a $395 million outflow on Friday ^[2].

Bear Market Rally or Sustainable Recovery?

Despite the positive inflow figures, a new report from CryptoQuant offered a sobering assessment of Bitcoin's recent price movement. "The recent price increase corresponds to the historical profile of a bear market rally," the report stated ^[1]. A bear market rally refers to a strong price recovery occurring within an overall downtrend that does not fundamentally alter the market's underlying bearish structure ^[1].

The CryptoQuant analysis noted that Bitcoin's price is approaching the 365-day moving average, currently at approximately $101,000, but has not yet reclaimed it ^[1]. "This level has historically functioned as a regime boundary," the report explained, noting that previous bear cycles showed repeated rejections near this threshold followed by renewed price declines ^[1].

The report also highlighted that while demand conditions have improved slightly, they remain weak overall ^[1]. "US spot indicators such as the Coinbase premium briefly turned positive, while Bitcoin ETFs merely paused net sales after selling around 54,000 BTC in November," according to the analysis ^[1].

Institutional Demand Shows Early Signs of Recovery

Vincent Liu, chief investment officer at Kronos Research, suggested the inflow pattern indicates long-only allocators are re-entering the market through regulated channels ^[2]. "ETF absorption alongside whale stabilization implies tightening effective supply and a more risk-on market environment," Liu told Cointelegraph ^[2].

Liu noted that onchain indicators show large holders have reduced net selling compared with late December, easing a key source of distribution pressure ^[2]. However, he cautioned that "this is an early phase of the shift, rather than full confirmation" ^[2].

The Bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock, Fidelity, and other providers now manage approximately 7.2 percent of all circulating Bitcoin, two years after their trading launch ^[1].

Warning Signs Persist

Despite the positive inflow data, concerning metrics remain. Bitcoin inflows to cryptocurrency exchanges have increased substantially following the recent rally, with a seven-day average of around 39,000 BTC reaching the highest level since late November ^[1]. This could signal growing selling pressure ^[1].

According to the Bitcoin macro intelligence newsletter Ecoinometrics, recent spikes in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have tended to trigger short-lived price rebounds rather than sustained upside ^[2]. The newsletter argues that Bitcoin needs several consecutive weeks of strong ETF demand to shift the broader trend, noting that cumulative ETF flows remain deeply negative ^[2].

Market Outlook Remains Mixed

A report from Binance Research offered a more optimistic perspective, expecting a "strategic turning point for crypto" in the new year, particularly regarding adoption for national and institutional reserve functions ^[1]. According to Polymarket, the probability that Bitcoin's price will exceed $130,000 in 2026 currently stands at 42 percent ^[1].