Bitcoin ETFs Record $358M Outflow as BTC Tests Key Support Levels

Largest ETF Outflow in Three Weeks

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $358 million in net outflows on Monday, marking the largest daily withdrawal in over three weeks ^[1]. The significant outflow has fueled speculation that institutional investors might be reducing their exposure after Bitcoin breached the psychological $90,000 support level ^[1].

Bitcoin gained 3% on Tuesday after selling off to the $85,000 level on Monday ^[1]. However, the cryptocurrency is currently trading 31% below its all-time high of $126,219, a pullback that could signal the end of the bullish phase that extended into October ^[1].

Technical Outlook Shows Bearish Control

On the daily chart, Bitcoin trades below both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, which are clustered near $95,000 and $108,000 ^[2]. This setup shows bears still control the short-term trend, with the 50-day SMA now acting as nearby resistance and the 200-day SMA capping any stronger bounce ^[2].

The Fibonacci retracement drawn from the October high near $126,270 to the March low shows the price has broken below the 0.618 retracement zone around $94,000, pushing BTC toward a wide support band between roughly $74,500 and $86,000 ^[2].

Recent candles show repeated rejection near $95,000 and lower highs since November, confirming a medium-term downtrend ^[2]. However, technical indicators suggest selling momentum is slowing as the price moves deeper into support ^[2].

Mixed Signals From Technical Indicators

Bitcoin technicals are neutral-to-bearish but no longer extreme ^[2]. The daily Relative Strength Index sits around 36, just above oversold territory, suggesting limited room for aggressive downside before dip buyers return ^[2].

Meanwhile, the MACD line is below the signal line and in negative territory ^[2]. However, the histogram bars are flattening, a sign that bearish momentum may be losing strength ^[2].

Bitcoin options' implied volatility peaked at 53% in November, roughly in line with the current level for Tesla ^[1]. When traders anticipate sharp price swings, this metric rises to reflect the higher premiums charged on call and put options ^[1].

Institutional Demand and Market Context

An uptick in outflows from the spot Bitcoin ETFs appears to show institutional investor demand softening since the Oct. 10 crash, reducing the likelihood of Bitcoin trading above $100,000 by year-end ^[1].

According to X user 'forcethehabit', Bitcoin's decline does not represent a trend change, as interest rate cuts have been delayed and the US Federal Reserve has reduced its balance sheet for longer than expected ^[1]. The analysis also notes that institutional capital entered primarily through ETFs and corporate reserves, while rotation into riskier and more illiquid assets has yet to materialize ^[1].

Price Scenarios

If Bitcoin holds above the lower support zone near $74,500 and the RSI starts to turn up, a rebound toward the 50-day SMA around $95,000 looks possible over the next few weeks ^[2]. A clean break and daily close above that level would open the door to a move toward $106,000 and then the prior high near $126,000, in line with Grayscale's view that a new all-time high is possible within about six months ^[2].

However, if bears push BTC decisively below $74,500, the market could see a deeper correction ^[2].

There is currently no indication that institutional investors have abandoned expectations for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 in the near term ^[1]. The effects of the recent liquidity injection from the US Fed have yet to be reflected in markets, making it premature to judge Bitcoin's performance ^[1].