Bitcoin Faces Multiple Headwinds as Market Navigates Quantum Concerns, MSCI Risk, and AI Bubble Fears

Structural Shift Amid Historic Leverage

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing turbulence despite having what many analysts describe as all the necessary ingredients for a bull market. Economist Adam Kobeissi characterized the current environment as "a structural shift amid historic levels of leverage," suggesting that the recent period of seemingly daily mass crypto liquidations will become clearer in retrospect ^[1].

Analyst "PlanB" described the situation as an "epic battle until sellers are out of ammo," with selling pressure coming from "OGs traumatized by 2021," technical investors examining relative strength indexes, and those who believe in the four-year cycle and that a bear market is due ^[1].

Bear Market Already Arrived, Some Say

"Bitcoin entered a bear market in late October 2025, becoming the first major risk asset to price in a slowing economy," 10x Research CEO Markus Thielen told Cointelegraph ^[1]. He added that "retail participation never meaningfully returned this cycle, and value creation remained narrowly concentrated in Bitcoin rather than broadening across risk assets. Winter isn't approaching; it has already arrived" ^[1].

However, Erik Lowe, head of content at blockchain venture firm Pantera, offered a more optimistic perspective: "While prices may have fallen short of expectations, this year delivered more structural progress than any in crypto's history" ^[1]. He highlighted regulatory shifts, the establishment of a US strategic Bitcoin reserve, and increases in stablecoin supplies as evidence that "there hasn't been a more important year for the industry than 2025" ^[1].

Quantum Computing Concerns Weigh on Price

A new anxiety has emerged around quantum computing threats to Bitcoin's security. Nic Carter, a partner at venture capital firm Castle Island Ventures, stated that the "discrepancy between capital and developers on this issue is massive. Capital is concerned and looking for a solution. Devs are mainly in complete denial. Inability to even acknowledge quantum risk is already weighing on the price" ^[2].

Craig Warmke, a fellow at the Bitcoin Policy Institute, agreed that quantum risk is "slowing the flow of capital into Bitcoin and pushing larger holders to diversify" ^[2]. Warmke suggested that "the only way forward is to develop and converge on contingency plans, just in case, so that people feel more comfortable holding Bitcoin" ^[2].

MSCI Index Exclusion Threatens $15 Billion Sell-Off

A potentially significant threat looms from index provider MSCI, which is considering excluding companies with large crypto holdings from its benchmarks. New calculations from the initiative BitcoinForCorporations estimate potential outflows at $10 to $15 billion, with analysts pinpointing the risk at around $11.6 billion ^[3].

This figure substantially exceeds earlier JPMorgan estimates of $2.8 billion, which primarily focused on Michael Saylor's (Micro)Strategy ^[3]. According to a preliminary list, 39 companies with a combined market capitalization of $113 billion are at risk ^[3]. MSCI-tracked indices serve as strict guidelines for countless passive investment funds and ETFs worldwide, forcing these funds to sell affected stocks regardless of fundamental valuation ^[3].

MSCI is scheduled to announce its final decision on January 15, 2026, with implementation potentially occurring during the February 2026 index review ^[3].

AI Bubble Identified as Major 2026 Risk

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino identified a potential AI bubble as Bitcoin's biggest risk in 2026. In a scenario where AI sentiment shifts, "the associated stock market turmoil in the US could affect the price of Bitcoin," Ardoino predicted ^[4]. However, apart from AI bubble-associated risks, Ardoino sees "no other major risks to Bitcoin performance in 2026 due to growing adoption by pension funds and governments" ^[4].

Ethereum Struggles at Key Support

Ethereum is trading at $2,847 support after a prolonged bearish move, remaining inside a descending channel that has guided price action lower since the September peak near the $4,800–$5,000 region ^[5]. The cryptocurrency is currently bouncing from lower channel support, which aligns with a key horizontal support level around $2,800–$2,850 ^[5]. The RSI indicator sits around 38–40, suggesting bearish momentum is weakening rather than accelerating ^[5].