Bitcoin Forecast for 2026: CoinShares Analyst Sees Potential Up to $240,000

CoinShares Remains Optimistic Despite Market Weakness

Despite current weakness in the crypto market, Matthew Kimmell, Digital Asset Analyst at CoinShares, remains optimistic about Bitcoin's development in 2026. "We believe that Bitcoin's potential in 2026 remains high, even though the path upward is unlikely to be linear," the analyst told BTC-ECHO ^[2].

Bitcoin's price has corrected by 23 percent since early October and is likely to end the 2025 trading year with a negative result, unless a sustained recovery occurs before New Year's Eve ^[2]. Sentiment among crypto investors is correspondingly subdued: The Fear & Greed Index stands at 20 points, indicating "extreme fear," comparable to November 2022 when the FTX collapse shook the market ^[2].

Two Models, Two Price Targets

CoinShares works with two different forecast models for Bitcoin valuation. The more conservative adoption-based savings model implies a valuation floor of around $140,000 by the end of 2026 ^[2]. This forecast is based on the assumption that global Bitcoin ownership and savings-driven inflows will continue to increase, building sustained demand ^[2].

The top-down total addressable market model supports significantly higher price scenarios. This model assumes accelerating penetration of various segments of the monetary market, including global money supply, gold, foreign exchange reserves, and corporate liquidity ^[2]. "Under this less conservative approach, Bitcoin could plausibly reach price levels in the range of $240,000 in 2026 in a favorable scenario," said Kimmell ^[2].

Phase of Rebalancing Ahead

Before significant upside potential can be realized, however, the market would first need to go through a rebalancing phase that could extend into the first or even second quarter ^[2]. Although the macroeconomic environment is generally supportive, a sustainable trend reversal would require resolution of the supply-side overhang ^[2].

Critical Voices from the Industry

Not all crypto industry insiders share CoinShares' optimistic outlook. Fidelity Director Jurien Timmer fears a new Bitcoin bear market in 2026 because the leading cryptocurrency "may have completed another four-year halving cycle both in terms of price and time" ^[2]. He expects significant support for Bitcoin's price only between $65,000 and $75,000 ^[2].

Bitcoin versus Gold: The Debate Continues

Parallel to price forecasts, the industry continues to discuss the fundamental advantages and disadvantages of Bitcoin compared to traditional stores of value like gold. Analyst Kratter argues that gold suffers from significant practical limitations: "It is very expensive to ship and insure large quantities of gold, making it a very poor method for settling trade imbalances" ^[1].

Gold's physical properties make it particularly unsuitable for online financial transactions and value transfer in the digital world, as gold cannot be sent over the internet ^[1]. Tokenized gold products also introduce counterparty risks, including the possibility that the issuer mints more gold tokens than physical gold in reserve or refuses redemption ^[1].

The question of whether the classic four-year cycle remains intact or whether institutional investors will ignite a new bull run remains open. "Given the uncertain future, perhaps only one thing is really certain: 2026 will be a pivotal year for Bitcoin," BTC-ECHO concludes ^[2].