Bitcoin Forecast for July 2026: Experts Expect Consolidation at $105,000

Bitcoin Forecast for July 2026: Experts Expect Consolidation at $105,000

The Bitcoin market is in a phase of reorientation. While crypto experts from the DACH region are revising their forecasts downward and expecting a longer consolidation phase, speculation about quantum computing risks is simultaneously causing uncertainty. Current developments show: The market is looking for new impulses, while professional investors are preparing for the coming half-year with more realistic expectations.

The combination of dampened expectations, low retail activity, and lack of catalysts paints a picture of a market that is reforming after a phase of sharp price declines – and has possibly already found its bottom.

The Facts

A joint crypto expert survey by BTC-ECHO and Prof. Dr. David Florysiak from IU International University of Applied Sciences shows significantly dampened expectations for the coming six months. The surveyed experts from the DACH region forecast an average Bitcoin price of $105,071 for the end of July 2026 ^[1]. In the worst-case scenario, with a 10 percent probability, the price could fall to $70,952, while in the best-case scenario a jump to $132,786 appears possible ^[1].

Particularly notable is the significant decline in expectations compared to the previous quarter. The BTC-6M Volatility Index, which summarizes the average expected volatility of the Bitcoin price over six months, has also fallen from 28.4 points in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 25.8 points ^[1]. Historical volatility stood at 28.9 points in the comparison period. Low retail trading volume and lack of impulses for a new upward trend characterize the current market situation ^[1].

Dr. André Dragosch, Director Head of Research at ETF and ETP provider Bitwise, does not expect an immediate continuation of the bull market: "I think the crypto market will likely continue to consolidate in the first quarter, even though the bottom is most likely already behind us" ^[1]. As a possible catalyst for a trend reversal, Dragosch cites a correction in the precious metals market, which could trigger a rotation into crypto assets ^[1].

Parallel to these market forecasts, speculation about quantum computing risks caused a stir. After Galaxy Digital's earnings call, rumors circulated that a wealthy client had sold $9 billion worth of Bitcoin due to concerns about Bitcoin's quantum resistance ^[2]. However, Alex Thorn, Galaxy's Head of Research, vigorously contradicted these speculations and clarified that the sale was not due to quantum computing concerns ^[2].

Galaxy Digital recorded a net loss of $482 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 and a loss of $241 million for the full year 2025 ^[2]. CEO Mike Novogratz expressed cautious optimism in a Bloomberg interview: "I think we're approaching the bottom, but we'll see. You always recognize a bottom only after you've seen it" ^[2]. As a potential catalyst for a market recovery, Novogratz cited progress on the CLARITY Act, the U.S. market structure law for cryptocurrencies ^[2].

Analysis & Context

The current market phase is reminiscent of earlier consolidation phases following strong price increases in the Bitcoin cycle. The expectations of the DACH experts reflect a realistic reassessment that is typical for phases in which the market takes a breather after a strong upward trend. The forecast average price of $105,071 would represent a moderate stabilization at an elevated level – a scenario that can certainly be evaluated positively for the long-term health of the market.

Particularly noteworthy is the discrepancy between the bearish short-term expectations and the assessment of many experts that the bottom may already have been reached. This suggests that professional market participants do not expect another dramatic collapse, but rather a phase of sideways movement with moderate upward potential. The falling volatility expectation underscores this assumption and could paradoxically be a positive signal: Markets that calm down after turbulent phases often create the basis for sustainable recoveries.

The quantum computing debate, however, reveals a deeper underlying issue that will increasingly occupy the market. While the concrete threat from quantum computers is still decades away – Blockstream CEO Adam Back speaks of 20 to 40 years – the nervousness of individual large investors shows that technological uncertainties are increasingly being factored into risk considerations. The development of BIP-360, a post-quantum signature scheme for Bitcoin, is an appropriate preventive measure that can contribute to the robustness of the network in the long term.

The real game-changer, however, could come from the regulatory corner. The CLARITY Act, which would create a clear delineation between the responsibilities of the SEC and CFTC for the first time, could lay the regulatory foundation necessary for the next wave of institutional adoption. The ongoing discussions about tokenized stocks, DeFi regulations, and stablecoin yields show that lawmakers are taking the complexity of the market seriously – a development that could provide more clarity and stability in the medium term.

Conclusion

• DACH experts expect consolidation at an average of $105,000 for July 2026, with the market bottom possibly already reached – this suggests a phase of stabilization rather than further dramatic declines

• Falling volatility expectations and low retail volume characterize a market phase waiting for a clear catalyst – potential impulses could come from a precious metals correction or progress on the CLARITY Act

• The quantum computing debate was falsely blamed for a $9 billion sale, but shows that technological future risks are increasingly being factored into professional investment decisions – the development of BIP-360 proactively addresses these concerns

• The CLARITY Act could create the regulatory foundation for the next wave of institutional adoption as a comprehensive market structure law – the current consolidation phase may require patience, but could lay a healthy foundation for sustainable growth

• Professional investors are increasingly positioning themselves with more realistic expectations for a longer consolidation, indicating a more mature market perception and replacing excessive euphoria with fundamental analysis