Bitcoin Forecasts Divide Analysts: Price Could Fall to $40,000 or Even Below $50,000

Bleak Forecasts for Bitcoin Price

The Bitcoin price, currently trading around the $90,000 mark ^[1], could come under significant pressure in the coming years. Several analysts are warning of substantial price losses, though their reasoning focuses on different aspects.

Macro analyst Luke Gromen warned in a YouTube interview of a possible decline in Bitcoin's price to around $40,000 in 2026 if the currently tense macroeconomic environment continues to deteriorate ^[1]. Gromen argues that BTC has recently lagged behind gold, even though both asset classes should theoretically benefit from inflation and devaluation of government currencies ^[1].

Technical Weakness and Quantum Computer Risks

Moreover, Bitcoin has fallen below several important technical levels, including various moving averages, which from Gromen's perspective indicates weakening market strength ^[1]. As an additional burden, the analyst cites the growing discussion about quantum computers, which could potentially be capable of cracking the encrypted transactions of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin in the future ^[1].

Charles Edwards of Capriole even warns of an even more drastic scenario. "If we don't have a fix implemented by 2028, I expect Bitcoin to fall below $50,000 and continue falling until it's fixed," Edwards stated ^[2]. He emphasizes that a patch rollout must occur by 2026 ^[2].

Quantum Threat as Point of Contention

Edwards argues that the threat is more imminent than many assume. "We need to fix this next year, or goodbye, enjoy the biggest Bitcoin bear market in history. FTX will look like a walk in the park," Edwards added ^[2]. He stresses that Bitcoin will be "first on the quantum chopping block" since most banks and institutions are already transitioning to post-quantum encryption and fraudulent transactions can be reversed or blocked ^[2].

However, this assessment faces criticism. Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor downplayed concerns about quantum computing and its impact on Bitcoin in July, calling them a marketing trick to push quantum-branded tokens ^[2]. Bitcoin veteran Willy Woo suggested last month holding Bitcoin in a SegWit wallet for about seven years to keep coins safe until a solution to the quantum-Bitcoin problem is found ^[2].

Technical Analysis Shows Weakness

Technical analysis supports the bearish perspective. After reaching an all-time high of approximately $126,200 in October, Bitcoin corrected within a falling channel ^[3]. The ongoing bearish pressure was further reinforced by a death cross at around $110,400, when the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossed above the 50-day SMA ^[3].

BTC has now lost the support level of $88,200, which had previously kept the price within a consolidation zone ^[3]. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) supports the bearish narrative, with the RSI now falling toward the oversold level of 30 and currently sitting at 40 ^[3].

Criticism of Pessimistic Forecasts

Within the community, Gromen's assessment in particular faces criticism, as on-chain analysts have not yet identified any structural deterioration in fundamentals ^[1]. Cryptographers also emphasize that a real attack by quantum computers is not currently considered realistic ^[1].

Despite the short-term warning, Gromen remains long-term positive on BTC, pointing to the limited availability of assets like Bitcoin and gold in an environment of rising government debt ^[1]. At the same time, the recently increasing inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs show that some investors continue to have confidence in Bitcoin's long-term development ^[1].