Bitcoin Forecasts for 2026: Analysts See Signals for Six-Figure Prices

The End of Traditional Halving Cycles

After a disappointing end to 2025, during which Bitcoin remained in the five-figure range, signs are mounting for a possible price rally in 2026. While the leading cryptocurrency reached a new all-time high of $126,000 in early October, it fell significantly short of ambitious expectations of up to $350,000 ^[1].

Analysts believe that the four-year cycles shaped by halving events may be a thing of the past ^[1]. This development could paradoxically pave the way for new highs. Analyst The Bitcoin Therapist explained that with the broken four-year cycle, Bitcoin could potentially reach a new all-time high in the first quarter of 2026, which would represent the "biggest bear trap in history" ^[2].

Christmas Bear Trap as Catalyst

Analyst James Bull identified a possible "Christmas bear trap" that could reverse in January—a pattern that has repeated over the past four years ^[2]. A look at recent history shows: The BTC/USD pair fell 8.5 percent between December 26 and 31, 2024, before reversing upward with a gain of 12.5 percent between January 1 and 6, 2025 ^[2].

Bitcoin recorded a decline of 2.6 percent on Monday from a high of $90,000 ^[2]. However, this short-term correction could represent a classic bear trap, where the price briefly falls below an important support level only to quickly reverse upward.

Institutional Adoption as Driver

James Bull sees the invalidation of the four-year cycle as the end of the old boom-bust cycle driven by retail investors. The changed Bitcoin market structure is characterized by growing institutional adoption via ETFs and corporate treasuries ^[2]. These factors, combined with macroeconomic developments such as interest rate cuts and increased liquidity, could drive the BTC price to new highs in 2026 ^[2].

Regarding spot Bitcoin ETF flows, Bull noted that outflows have significantly reduced from -1,600 BTC on November 21 and are now "trending toward zero." A similar scenario in April led to a 33 percent price rally to $112,000 on May 22 ^[2]. Bull emphasized: "This is not a guarantee that Bitcoin will return to all-time highs, but it is a strong signal" ^[2].

Concrete Price Targets for 2026

Analysts at Citi Group set a 12-month baseline forecast for Bitcoin at $143,000, primarily driven by "revived ETF demand." The bullish scenario envisions a price target of $189,000 ^[2].

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently forming a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. The price must close above the upper trendline of the triangle at $90,000 to continue the upward movement, with a measured target of $107,400 ^[2]. Analyst Dami-Defi explained: "If Bitcoin pushes above this upper trendline and holds above it, we'll likely see a bullish breakout to those higher resistance levels around $94,000 and then up near $106,000" ^[2].

A bullish daily close above $90,000 would trigger a new rally toward six-figure levels, representing a gain of 22 percent from current levels ^[2].