Bitcoin Loses Massively Against Gold – Analysts See Short-Term Divergence

Gold Shines, Bitcoin Weakens

The year 2025 proved exceptionally strong for gold. Driven by geopolitical tensions, expectations of monetary policy easing, and massive central bank purchases, the gold price rose to over $4,370 per troy ounce by year-end ^[1]. Bitcoin was unable to keep pace with this development.

Bitcoin's year-to-date performance as of December 19, 2025, stood at minus 5.5 to 14 percent, while gold gained around 65 percent over the same period ^[1]. Bitcoin also lagged significantly behind traditional risk assets such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ^[1].

Dramatic Collapse of BTC-Gold Ratio

Particularly striking is the development of the Bitcoin-gold ratio. The ratio of Bitcoin to gold (BTC/XAU) reached an all-time high in December 2024, but has since fallen by around 50 percent ^[1]. Currently, BTC/XAU is trading at around 20 ounces – the lowest level since early 2024 ^[2].

However, analytics firm Messari explicitly emphasizes that this is a short-term divergence – not a structural break ^[1].

Bitcoin Behaves Like a Macro Asset

A central point of Messari's analysis is correlation. Between March 2020 and April 2025, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold was only 0.18 ^[1]. During the same period, Bitcoin showed a much stronger correlation with stock indices such as the S&P 500 ^[1].

This explains why Bitcoin could not benefit from the classic flight to safe havens in 2025. While gold was supported by geopolitical uncertainties and central bank demand, Bitcoin was increasingly treated like a macro asset – vulnerable to liquidity cycles, profit-taking, and risk aversion ^[1].

Tokenized Gold as New Competitor

Added to this is a new competitor: tokenized precious metals. The market capitalization of tokenized commodities grew by 244 percent to around $3.6 billion by the end of November 2025 ^[1]. The majority consists of gold-backed tokens such as Paxos Gold (PAXG) and Tether Gold (XAUT) ^[1].

Analysts See Bullish Signals

Despite the weak performance, some analysts see opportunities. Crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe predicted "more upside potential on the horizon" for Bitcoin ^[2]. "In my thesis, gold is overvalued while Bitcoin is undervalued," he explained to his X followers ^[2].

Historical comparisons show that in every Bitcoin bear market, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling below 30 marked a long-term bottom for the pair ^[2]. The weekly RSI currently stands at 29.5, reaching lows not seen in almost three years ^[2].

"The best part: On the daily chart, a bullish divergence is beginning to form, signaling that more upside potential is on the horizon in the short term," van de Poppe added ^[2].

Critical Support Level

However, trading account Wealthmanager warned that Bitcoin is at a critical support level against gold. "The last Bitcoin bear market officially began when we lost this support," it stated in an X post ^[2]. "I expect we will consolidate here for a while, but a break is likely within the next few weeks" ^[2].

Messari remains constructive for the long term despite the short-term weakness. The analysts attribute the underperformance primarily to structural changes: Bitcoin is more liquid today, more heavily regulated, and more easily tradable via ETFs than ever before ^[1]. Large holdings can be sold for the first time without massive market impact ^[1].