Bitcoin Price Forecasts Sharply Divided: Recovery to $100,000 or Decline to $70,000?

Divided Opinions on Bitcoin Price Development

The Bitcoin market finds itself in a phase of heightened uncertainty. While the largest cryptocurrency remained confined to a defined trading range over the weekend, analyst and trader forecasts are sharply divergent. Some see an imminent recovery, while others warn of significant price losses.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets and TradingView showed moderate movements within a defined range for BTC/USD over the weekend ^[2]. The trading pair has been moving within a $5,000 corridor for the eighth consecutive day, and the trading community increasingly expected an imminent breakout attempt ^[2].

Optimistic Scenarios: Recovery to $100,000

Crypto analyst and entrepreneur Ted Pillows wrote in his latest analysis on X: "$BTC relief rally could happen soon" ^[2]. He added: "A pump towards the $98,000-$100,000 level before the next leg down" ^[2].

An accompanying weekly chart compared today's bearish Relative Strength Index (RSI) divergences with those from 2021, the final year of the previous Bitcoin bull market ^[2]. However, Pillows also warned that buying pressure must be strong enough to prevent the 100-week exponential moving average (EMA) from falling below its simple moving average (SMA) ^[2]. "The last 2 instances caused a 40%-50% $BTC crash within 4-6 weeks," he cautioned ^[2].

Trader Captain Faibik was among those boldly predicting an imminent shift to a bullish trend ^[2]. "In next few days, Bitcoin will breakout & then everyone will rush in with FOMO entries which won't be beneficial," he said, describing the BTC price correction as "complete" ^[2].

The trading account Korinek_Trades expected new all-time highs, albeit possibly after another macroeconomic low point ^[2]. Using Elliott Wave Theory, an X post explained: "We should still see another higher high for blue W5 up to ATH complete a 5 wave structure" ^[2]. The forecast stated: "Projecting upside targets to 150K" ^[2].

Pessimistic Perspective: Decline to $70,000

Onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, however, took a significantly more pessimistic view. The platform anticipated a possible reapproach to the old highs around $70,000 ^[2].

Bitcoin remains "fragile" and vulnerable to a decline into areas with stronger buyer interest, it was stated ^[2]. "The next major downside target lies at the high-demand zone between $70,000 and $72,000, where stronger buyer interest is expected to emerge," wrote analyst CryptoOnchain in a blog post ^[2].

CryptoOnchain additionally pointed to rising BTC inflows to the Binance exchange as reason to expect downward pressure on price ^[2]. "The combination of a technical breakdown below the $90K level and the injection of $1.4B worth of BTC into Binance significantly increases the probability of a corrective move toward the $70K–$72K demand zone," the post summarized ^[2].

Current Market Situation

The crypto market was able to stabilize slightly in the last regular trading week before the holidays ^[1]. Bitcoin ended the week with a slight price gain of one percent in the $89,000 range ^[1]. Ethereum, however, lost just under one percent in value over the past seven trading days, just above $3,000 ^[1]. Ripple and Solana had to give up ground again despite continued inflows into spot ETFs, each trending approximately two percent lower ^[1].