Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Debated as Analysts Point to Liquidity and Political Factors Over Halving Events

Competing Views on Bitcoin's Market Cycles

The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a heated debate over whether Bitcoin's historically observed four-year cycle continues to drive price movements, with analysts presenting conflicting interpretations of current market dynamics.

According to analyst Thielen, Bitcoin's four-year cycle remains intact but is now driven primarily by politics and liquidity rather than the cryptocurrency's halving schedule alone ^[1]. This view contrasts sharply with that of BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who argued in October that the four-year crypto cycle is over ^[1].

Global Liquidity as the Primary Driver

Hayes dismissed the notion that Bitcoin cycles follow arbitrary four-year timelines, instead asserting that global liquidity has always been the true driver of cryptocurrency bull and bear markets ^[1]. According to Hayes, traders relying on historical timing models to predict the end of the current bull market are likely to be wrong, as those patterns no longer reflect how markets move ^[1].

Past bull markets ended when monetary conditions tightened, particularly when US dollar and Chinese yuan liquidity slowed, Hayes noted ^[1]. He characterized the halving as an overstated factor that has been coincidental rather than causal in driving market cycles ^[1].

Fed Rate Cut Fails to Ignite Rally

Bitcoin has struggled to regain momentum following the Federal Reserve's latest rate cut, defying historical patterns where rate cuts typically supported risk assets ^[1]. Thielen observed that the current environment differs from previous cycles, with institutional investors—now the dominant force in crypto markets—exercising greater caution ^[1].

The analyst attributed this hesitation to mixed policy signals from the Fed and tightening liquidity conditions ^[1]. Capital inflows into Bitcoin have slowed compared with last year, reducing the upside pressure needed to sustain a strong breakout ^[1]. Without a clear pickup in liquidity, Thielen expects Bitcoin to remain in a consolidation phase rather than enter a new parabolic rally ^[1].

Japanese Monetary Policy Emerges as Key Risk Factor

Separate analysis has identified the Bank of Japan's monetary policy as a significant factor in Bitcoin price movements. Analyst AndrewBTC highlighted data showing that every BOJ rate hike since 2024 has coincided with Bitcoin price drawdowns exceeding 20% ^[2].

Specifically, BTC declined roughly 23% in March 2024, 26% in July 2024, and 31% in January 2025 following BOJ rate increases ^[2]. The analyst warned that similar downside risks could emerge if the BOJ raises rates at its upcoming policy meeting ^[2]. A Reuters poll showed a majority of economists forecasting another rate increase at the December policy meeting ^[2].

Technical Indicators Signal Caution

Bitcoin's daily chart has displayed technical warning signs, with price action consolidating inside a classic bear flag formation ^[2]. The pattern formed after BTC's sharp breakdown from the $105,000–$110,000 region in November, followed by a narrow upward-sloping consolidation channel ^[2]. Such structures typically signal temporary pauses before trend continuation ^[2].

AndrewBTC suggested that the technical pattern could push Bitcoin below $70,000 if combined with hawkish BOJ policy decisions ^[2].

The competing analyses underscore the evolving nature of Bitcoin price drivers, with traditional halving-based cycle theories facing challenge from macro-focused interpretations centered on global liquidity flows and central bank policies.