Bitcoin's Historic Four-Year Cycle Shows Signs of Breaking After 2025 Decline

Bitcoin has finished 2025 trading below where it started the year, marking an unprecedented break from a pattern that has held since the cryptocurrency's earliest days. The development has reignited debate among industry observers about whether Bitcoin's long-established four-year cycle remains a viable framework for understanding market behavior.

Historic Pattern Breaks Down

The digital currency is currently trading more than 30% below its all-time high of $126,080, which was reached on October 6, according to data from CoinGecko ^[1]. This represents the first time Bitcoin has declined during a post-halving year, disrupting a pattern that has persisted through multiple market cycles ^[1].

Bitcoin halvings, which occur every four years and reduce mining rewards by half, have historically triggered predictable market cycles. Following halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin consistently rallied to new highs in the subsequent year ^[1]. The most recent halving took place in April 2024 ^[1].

Industry Perspectives Diverge

Vivek Sen, founder of Bitcoin public relations firm Bitgrow Lab, declared the four-year cycle "Officially dead" in a social media post on Wednesday, pointing to the year-end decline as conclusive evidence ^[1].

Investor Armando Pantoja attributed the shift to fundamental changes in market composition. "The Market Has New Players, crypto isn't 2016 or 2020 anymore. ETFs, institutions, and corporate balance sheets don't trade like hype-driven retail," he stated, adding that "Bitcoin Trades macro now BTC reacts to liquidity, rates, regulation, and geopolitics, not a perfect halving calendar" ^[1].

Pantoja acknowledged that halvings remain relevant but emphasized that "supply is increasingly locked, miners have financing options, and price dynamics aren't as automatic as before" ^[1].

Several prominent cryptocurrency executives, including ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, and Bitwise's Matt Hougan and Hunter Horsley, indicated throughout 2025 that they believed the four-year cycle had become obsolete ^[1].

However, not all market observers agree. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, argued during a December edition of The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast that the cycle continues to exist, though it no longer follows the same patterns driven by programmed supply reductions ^[1].

Current Market Conditions

As of late December 31, Bitcoin was trading around $88,300, representing a fractional decline over the previous 24 hours despite a 20% increase in daily trading volume ^[2]. Technical analysis shows the cryptocurrency moving sideways after its October downturn, with immediate resistance at approximately $90,000 ^[2].

The Relative Strength Index stood at 44.90, slightly below the neutral 50 mark, suggesting mild selling pressure without indicating oversold conditions ^[2]. Analysts note that the market appears to be in a consolidation phase, with neither buyers nor sellers maintaining clear control ^[2].

Key support levels have been identified around $85,000 and $80,000, while resistance levels extend to approximately $110,000 and a major barrier between $125,000 and $130,000 ^[2].

Regulatory Developments

The regulatory landscape continues to evolve alongside market dynamics. CFTC Chair Michael Selig recently appointed Amir Zaidi as chief of staff, bringing back an official who previously played a crucial role in introducing CFTC-regulated Bitcoin futures during an earlier administration ^[2]. Zaidi served at the CFTC from 2010 to 2019 in senior positions including head of the Division of Market Oversight ^[2].

The appointment comes as Congress considers digital asset legislation that could potentially expand the CFTC's regulatory authority over cryptocurrency markets ^[2].