Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Analysts Debate Bottom Levels as Price Tests $84,000

Technical Indicators Point to $55,000 Floor

As Bitcoin's price continues to face downward pressure, crypto analysts are turning to historical technical patterns to predict where the current correction might bottom out. According to analyst Sykodelic, who shared insights with 62,000 followers on X, predictions of Bitcoin plunging to $35,000 in 2026 are "absolute rubbish" ^[1].

The analyst's confidence stems from Bollinger Bands analysis, which has historically proven reliable for identifying Bitcoin's support levels. "Bitcoin prices have never fallen below the Bollinger Bands on the monthly time frame," Sykodelic noted ^[1]. Drawing comparisons to the 2017 cycle, which saw massive gains followed by retracement, the analyst pointed out that prices still didn't fall below the monthly lower Bollinger Band despite significant corrections.

The key argument centers on the relationship between expansion and contraction cycles. "For Bitcoin to retrace 75% it actually has to fully expand, and this cycle, it just did not do that," the analyst explained, noting that severe retracements only become possible when the relative strength index (RSI) reaches levels that "make that level of contraction possible" ^[1].

In a worst-case bear market scenario, if the monthly candle closes below the mid line, Sykodelic suggests "a maximum bottom of $55k" ^[1].

Institutional Involvement Changes Market Dynamics

Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx exchange, argues that even a $55,000 correction appears unlikely, with his bear-case scenario projecting Bitcoin revisiting "the $65,000 to $68,000 levels" ^[1]. Ko's analysis emphasizes a fundamental shift in Bitcoin's market structure due to increased institutional participation.

"The traditional four-year cycle structure is breaking, and with Bitcoin now far more institutionalized, I do not expect another 70%–80% drawdown from all-time highs," Ko told Cointelegraph ^[1]. He pointed to "market depth, ETF participation, and a structurally broader investor base" as factors suggesting "future corrections will be shallower and more orderly compared to previous cycles" ^[1].

Critical Support Zone and Regulatory Headwinds

However, not all analysts share this optimism. Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, warned of potential "catastrophic stops with unknown consequences" if Bitcoin breaks below the "significant support area around the $72,000 to $75,000" level ^[1]. Fan expressed particular concern about the impact on companies like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and the cascading effects of DAT stop selling.

Bitcoin's recent decline to $84,000 on Monday came amid broader market concerns ^[2]. The 23% price drop over the past 30 days has disrupted operations for strategic digital-asset reserve companies, which previously benefited from issuing stock at market prices to purchase more Bitcoin ^[2].

Regulatory uncertainty has added to market unease. China's central bank reaffirmed its strict approach toward digital assets, with the People's Bank of China stating that stablecoins "were being used for illegal activities including money laundering, fraud, and unauthorized cross-border fund transfers" ^[2].

Additionally, S&P Global Ratings downgraded Tether stablecoin reserves to the weakest level possible on Wednesday, citing "persistent gaps in disclosure" and "limited information on the creditworthiness of its custodians, counterparties, or bank account providers" ^[2]. Following the downgrade, USDT began trading at a 0.4% discount relative to the official USD/CNY rate in China ^[2].

Strategy CEO Phong Le stated in an interview that the company would only consider selling its Bitcoin holdings "if mNAV remains depressed and every other funding option has been exhausted" ^[2]. The company announced on Monday it successfully raised $1.44 billion in cash to support dividend payments and service debt obligations ^[2].