Bitcoin Tests $90,000 Resistance as Market Sentiment Turns Cautious for 2026

Bitcoin Approaches Key Resistance Level

Bitcoin moved toward the $90,000 price level during the first U.S. trading session of 2026, with momentum building during Asian trading hours ^[1]. The cryptocurrency's attempt to breach this resistance point coincides with renewed activity on traditional financial markets following the New Year holiday.

As trading resumed, a new price gap emerged on CME Group's futures market, pointing downward and establishing a potential near-term target for traders to monitor ^[1]. Trading account Daan Crypto Trades noted the importance of tracking this development, adding that the proximity to the weekend could result in multiple gaps forming and creating volatility to start the year ^[1].

Historically, Bitcoin's price tends to move up or down to fill newly formed gaps within days or even hours after futures markets reopen ^[1].

Liquidation Risks Build Around $88,000

Trading platform TheKingfisher issued a warning that prices could decline to eliminate late long positions clustered around the $88,000 level ^[1]. The platform noted that a significant concentration of long liquidations was accumulating on the high leverage liquidation map, suggesting traders with liquidation prices near $88,000 should consider adjusting their positions ^[1].

Monitoring resource CoinGlass data showed liquidity building on both sides of the current price level heading into the Wall Street trading session ^[1]. Cross-cryptocurrency liquidations reached over $200 million in the 24 hours preceding the report as markets moved higher ^[1].

Market Expectations Diverge From Analyst Projections

Prediction market Polymarket reveals considerably more cautious sentiment among traders for 2026 price targets ^[2]. The probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by year-end currently stands at just 23 percent on the platform, substantially below forecasts from several major analytical firms ^[2].

The prediction market assigns approximately 30 percent probability to price targets between $130,000 and $140,000, while $120,000 carries nearly 50 percent odds ^[2]. The most likely outcome according to Polymarket participants is $100,000, with an 81 percent probability ^[2]. This shift suggests the market is adjusting expectations downward following recent subdued months ^[2].

In contrast, traditional analytical institutions maintain notably more optimistic outlooks. Firms including Standard Chartered, Strategy, and Bernstein project prices around $150,000 ^[2]. Some market observers, such as Fundstrat CIO Tom Lee, have cited ranges between $200,000 and $250,000 ^[2].

Gold Rebounds After Year-End Correction

Gold recovered from its New Year's Eve decline, pushing back toward all-time highs and trading near the $4,400 level ^[1]. The precious metal emerged as the top-performing major asset in 2025 with a 64 percent gain, while Bitcoin declined 6 percent during the same period ^[1].

Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at wealth manager Creative Planning, observed this represented an unprecedented reversal from typical patterns, noting it was something not seen in any previous calendar year since 2013 ^[1].

Analysts have suggested Bitcoin's relative underperformance compared to gold does not necessarily signal a new bear market, but rather represents a period of consolidation based on historical patterns ^[1].