Bitcoin Whale Accumulation Narrative Challenged as Long-Term Holders Resume Buying

The popular narrative surrounding massive Bitcoin whale accumulation has been significantly exaggerated, with onchain analysis revealing that much of the reported activity stems from cryptocurrency exchange operations rather than genuine investor behavior, according to research from CryptoQuant.

Exchange Activity Distorts Whale Data

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, explained that publicly shared whale accumulation data has been misleading due to distortions from exchange-related activity ^[1]. Cryptocurrency exchanges regularly consolidate funds from numerous smaller wallets into fewer large wallets for operational and regulatory purposes, artificially inflating the number of wallets with very large balances ^[1].

This consolidation process causes onchain trackers to incorrectly identify the activity as whale accumulation when filtering out these exchange-related distortions reveals a different picture ^[1]. The corrected data indicates that large holders continue to distribute Bitcoin rather than accumulate it, with overall whale balances still declining ^[1].

Holdings in addresses containing between 100 and 1,000 BTC are also falling, a trend that suggests ongoing outflows from exchange-traded funds ^[1]. This data carries particular significance given that Bitcoin whales exert considerable influence on the market, with their large transactions frequently driving price action and volatility periods ^[1].

The market structure has undergone transformation since early 2024 following the introduction of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have become major holders of the digital asset ^[1].

Long-Term Holders Shift to Accumulation

Despite the overstated whale accumulation narrative, onchain data reveals a more encouraging development among long-term holders. Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, reported that Bitcoin's long-term holders have become net accumulators over the past 30 days ^[1].

This shift follows what Sigel characterized as the cohort's largest selling event since 2019, suggesting that a significant source of recent selling pressure may be diminishing in the near term ^[1]. At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading slightly above $90,000, having avoided a retest of its sub-$80,000 low from November, though price action has yet to demonstrate a sustained recovery ^[1].

Critical Price Levels for 2026

Bitcoin entered 2025 near $93,000 before plunging to $74,500 in April and subsequently rallying to $126,199 in October ^[2]. After surrendering a substantial portion of those gains, BTC is on track to conclude the year with minor losses ^[2].

Technical analysis of monthly charts shows Bitcoin has maintained a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating an uptrend ^[2]. The 20-month exponential moving average at $88,049 has provided support during the previous two corrections, making it a crucial level to monitor ^[2].

A close below both the 20-month EMA and the April low of $74,508 would break the sequence of higher lows, potentially signaling declining demand and pulling the price toward $50,000 ^[2]. Conversely, if the price rebounds from the 20-week EMA and surpasses the psychological $100,000 level, bulls may attempt to drive the price toward the all-time high of $126,199, with potential targets extending to $141,188 and $178,621 ^[2].

The near-term outlook appears bearish on weekly charts, with moving averages approaching a bearish crossover for the first time since January 2022 ^[2]. Analysts remain divided on Bitcoin's future prospects, with some anticipating a bear market while others expect limited downside and a potential rally to new all-time highs in 2026 ^[2].