Crypto Market Shows Mixed Signals as XRP Flips BNB While Sentiment Indicators Diverge

Social Media Sentiment Diverges from Fear Index

The cryptocurrency market is sending mixed signals at the start of 2026, with social media sentiment showing strength even as traditional fear indicators remain subdued. According to Santiment analyst Brian Quinlivan, sentiment among crypto market participants on social media has started the year strong ^[1].

"It is very positive at the moment," Quinlivan said in a video published on Saturday, adding that "usually that is a bit of a concern, but in this case it might just be a hey we're back from the holidays" ^[1].

This positive social media reading contrasts sharply with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which posted a "Fear" score of 29 in its Saturday update ^[1]. The index has remained in the "Fear" to "Extreme Fear" range since early November 2025 ^[1].

Retail Investor Behavior Remains Critical

Quinlivan emphasized that further market upside depends on retail investors maintaining a cautious approach. "We need retail to continue to be a bit cautious, a bit pessimistic, a bit impatient," he stated ^[1].

The analyst expressed concern that excessive fear of missing out could emerge if Bitcoin climbs quickly toward $92,000 ^[1]. At the time of his comments, Bitcoin was trading at $89,930, representing a 1.77% increase over the previous 24 hours ^[1]. A rapid price increase to that level would reveal "the true reaction from retailers," Quinlivan noted, warning that investors pouring money in simply because "Bitcoin goes up" would be problematic ^[1].

XRP Reclaims Third Position

In a significant market development, XRP surged 8% over 24 hours to trade at $2.03, with trading volume skyrocketing 211% to $4.3 billion ^[2]. The rally pushed XRP's market capitalization to approximately $123 million, allowing it to reclaim third place among crypto assets by outranking BNB, which held a market value of over $120 million ^[2].

The XRP price movement came as the broader digital asset market showed renewed strength, with the crypto space jumping over 2% to reach a $3.07 trillion market capitalization ^[2]. This surge enabled Bitcoin to recover above the $90,000 psychological resistance level ^[2].

Technical analysis suggests XRP broke out of a falling wedge pattern and is trading above the lower Fibonacci support level at $1.91 ^[2]. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator has flipped bullish, with green bars forming above the neutral line indicating positive momentum ^[2]. The Relative Strength Index has also climbed past the 50-midline level to around 58, suggesting active buyer participation ^[2].

Ethereum Advances Above Key Level

Ethereum posted a 4% gain over 24 hours, trading at $3,122, while daily trading volume jumped 119% to $24.5 billion ^[3]. The move came alongside notable predictions from Tom Lee, chairman of Ether-focused company BitMine, who stated that Ethereum could potentially reach $250,000 if Bitcoin hits $1 million ^[3].

Lee has proposed increasing BitMine's authorized shares from 50 million to 50 billion to accommodate potential future stock splits if Ethereum's price rises substantially ^[3]. He explained that the company's share price closely follows Ethereum and could reach around $5,000 per share under his forecast scenario, necessitating a large stock split to maintain affordability for retail investors ^[3].

Historical January Strength

Despite the current sentiment divergence, January has historically proven strong for major cryptocurrencies. Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged gains of 3.75% during the month, while Ethereum has posted average January gains of 19.07%, according to CoinGlass data ^[1].