Crypto Market Under Pressure: Bitcoin Investors Selling at a Loss – XRP Already Down 48 Percent

Alarming On-Chain Signals: Is the 2021 Pattern Repeating?

The crypto market is sending increasingly warning signals. While Bitcoin is still trading above the $88,000 mark, the data on the blockchain tells a significantly more pessimistic story. Investors are systematically realizing losses again for the first time in over a year – a behavioral pattern that already preceded the last major bear market. At the same time, XRP has already lost half its value from its all-time high and is firmly in bear market mode according to analysts' assessments.

The crucial question for investors now is: Is this a healthy correction within an intact bull market – or are we at the beginning of a multi-year crypto winter?

The Facts

According to data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, the profit phase in the Bitcoin market has turned into a loss phase ^[1]. Since the end of December 2024, losses of up to 69,000 BTC have been realized – a volume that has been reached again for the first time since October 2023 ^[1]. This means that investors are selling Bitcoin holdings that they acquired at higher prices, consciously accepting losses in the process.

Particularly concerning appears the similarity to the market development of 2021/2022. CryptoQuant speaks of a "regime change": While investors were previously still taking profits, they are now increasingly selling at a loss ^[1]. The analytics firm observes that since the beginning of 2024, realized profits have been forming increasingly lower peaks – a classic signal of weakening market strength ^[1]. Annual net profits are also falling to levels that were last recorded at the beginning of the previous bear market ^[1]. Despite these negative on-chain signals, Bitcoin is trading at $88,360 at the time of writing ^[1], which underscores the discrepancy between price development and investor behavior.

The situation appears even more dramatic for XRP. Ripple's token has already lost 48 percent of its value since its all-time high on July 18, 2025, and is currently trading at just $1.89 ^[2]. An anonymous analyst on TradingView diagnoses: "XRP has been in a bear cycle since its all-time high on July 18, 2025" ^[2]. Technically speaking, the price is moving in a downward channel, which along with other high-cap cryptocurrencies has tested the 100-week moving average as support over the past 30 days ^[2].

The analyst predicts a further decline to $1.45, which would represent an additional downturn of 23 percent ^[2]. However, there are also optimistic voices: Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse remains bullish and considers a new all-time high realistic this year ^[2]. Market observers cite macroeconomic uncertainties as the reason for Bitcoin's decline ^[1].

Analysis & Assessment

The current on-chain data provides a far more meaningful picture of the market situation than the pure price movement. When investors begin to systematically sell at a loss, this indicates a fundamental change in market sentiment. The parallels to the 2021/2022 transition identified by CryptoQuant are indeed remarkable: Back then, too, profit peaks gradually declined before major sell-offs followed. The Bitcoin price was still trading at around $47,000 at the time before it plunged to below $16,000 in the following months.

However, historical comparisons should be interpreted with caution. Each market cycle exhibits unique characteristics. The macroeconomic situation today differs significantly from 2021/2022: institutional adoption has deepened, Bitcoin ETFs exist, and the regulatory landscape has changed. Nevertheless, the fact remains that 69,000 BTC in realized losses represents a significant signal – it shows that the pain threshold of many investors has been reached.

For XRP, the analysis is complicated by project-specific factors. The token traditionally reacts more sensitively to regulatory developments and often shows higher volatility than Bitcoin. A decline of 48 percent from the all-time high is dramatic, but lies within the historical range for altcoins during correction phases. The divergent assessments – pessimistic chart analysts versus optimistic CEO – reflect the fundamental uncertainty. In the medium term, XRP's development is likely to depend heavily on whether Bitcoin can hold its support zones. A further Bitcoin decline would likely disproportionately burden XRP and other altcoins.

The macroeconomic uncertainties cited as the reason for the weakness are likely to persist for the time being. As long as there is no clarity about interest rate developments, geopolitical risks, and regulatory frameworks, the market will remain vulnerable to further downward movements. Investors should prepare for increased volatility.

Conclusion

• On-chain data signals a fundamental deterioration in market sentiment: For the first time since October 2023, Bitcoin investors are again systematically selling at a loss, which has historically often preceded bear markets

• The parallels to the 2021/2022 transition identified by CryptoQuant are concerning, but today's market structure with institutional participation and ETFs differs fundamentally from back then

• XRP has already lost 48 percent from its all-time high and is technically moving in a downward channel – further weakness to $1.45 appears possible from a chart technical perspective

• The discrepancy between a stable Bitcoin price ($88,000) and negative on-chain signals suggests that the market is in a fragile equilibrium that could tip with additional selling pressure

• Investors should prepare for continued volatility and review their risk management strategies – the coming weeks will show whether this is a correction or the beginning of an extended bear market