Diverging Paths: Twenty One Capital's Rocky Debut Contrasts With Saylor's Vision for Bitcoin Banking

Twenty One Capital's Troubled NYSE Debut

Twenty One Capital's highly anticipated public debut on the New York Stock Exchange delivered a sobering reality check for Bitcoin-backed investment products. Trading under the ticker XXI, the company's shares fell nearly 20% on December 9, 2025, despite holding over 43,500 BTC valued at roughly $3.9 billion to $4.0 billion ^[1].

The institutionally backed Bitcoin-native company went public via a SPAC merger with Cantor Equity Partners, with backing from high-profile institutions including Cantor Fitzgerald, Tether, Bitfinex, and SoftBank ^[1]. Yet when the SPAC shares converted to XXI, the stock opened at $10.74, below the prior close of $14.27, ultimately settling at $11.96—a drop of approximately 19.97% ^[1].

Trading at Asset Value, Not Premium

The most telling indicator of market sentiment was that XXI traded close to its net asset value, with virtually no premium assigned to its business strategy or management capabilities ^[1]. Historically, Bitcoin treasury firms have commanded high multiple-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) premiums during bullish market cycles, reflecting investor confidence in management's ability to create value beyond underlying holdings ^[1].

Twenty One Capital's debut occurred during challenging market conditions. Bitcoin had fallen more than 28% from its October peak, creating a risk-off environment ^[1]. Additionally, enthusiasm for SPAC-driven listings had cooled considerably by late 2025, with a track record of post-merger underperformance contributing to investor skepticism ^[1].

Demand for Revenue Models Beyond Bitcoin Holdings

The muted reaction may signal an evolution in investor expectations. According to Reuters, analysts suggest it is becoming "harder for DATs to raise capital" and that companies "need to show material differentiation" to justify their trading multiples ^[1].

Twenty One Capital went public without a detailed, publicly available business plan or confirmed timeline for revenue generation ^[1]. The market's response suggests investors may now prioritize companies demonstrating sustainable business models and predictable cash flows rather than relying primarily on large Bitcoin holdings ^[1].

Saylor's Vision: Bitcoin-Backed National Banks

In stark contrast to Twenty One's cautious reception, Michael Saylor, executive chair of Strategy, presented an ambitious framework at the Bitcoin MENA conference in Abu Dhabi. Saylor proposed that national governments develop regulated digital banking platforms backed by Bitcoin reserves and tokenized credit tools ^[2].

Saylor's vision includes licensed national banks offering digital accounts with an 80% allocation to tokenized credit, 20% to fiat reserves, and an additional 10% reserve buffer for liquidity and stability ^[2]. For the crypto component, he recommends a 5:1 overcollateralization ratio, meaning collateral would far exceed underlying credit obligations ^[2].

Strategy continues expanding its Bitcoin position, recently purchasing 10,624 Bitcoin valued at approximately $962.7 million, bringing total holdings to 660,624 BTC ^[2]. The company's STRC preferred share, introduced in 2025 as a Bitcoin-linked instrument with features resembling money market tools, has reached a market capitalization of around $2.9 billion ^[2].

Addressing Low-Yield Environments

Saylor argues that persistently low deposit interest rates in regions like Japan, parts of Europe, and Switzerland create opportunities for alternative models ^[2]. He projects that a nation implementing this framework could attract between $20 trillion and $50 trillion in capital, positioning itself as a digital banking hub ^[2].

However, significant concerns remain. Bitcoin's volatility persists—as of December 12, 2025, it traded around $90,000, roughly 29% below its October 2025 all-time high of about $126,080, though still representing a gain of roughly 360% compared with December 15, 2020 ^[2].

Former Salomon Brothers trader Josh Mandell has raised concerns about liquidity risk in STRC-like instruments during rapid-withdrawal scenarios ^[2]. Implementing Bitcoin-backed national banking systems would require clear legal definitions, effective supervision, robust risk management frameworks, and alignment with international banking standards ^[2].

The divergent paths of Twenty One Capital's struggling debut and Saylor's expansive proposals highlight the current tension in Bitcoin-backed investment products: between investor demand for proven business models and visionary frameworks that remain largely theoretical.