Divided Forecasts in the Crypto Market: While Draper Bets on $250,000, Data Warns of Sideways Trend

Draper Maintains Bullish $250,000 Forecast

Star investor Tim Draper has renewed his optimistic Bitcoin forecast, predicting the cryptocurrency will break through the $250,000 mark in 2026. The American investor speaks of a "bonanza year" that should be driven by technological advances and initial public offerings ^[2]. However, this is not the first time Draper has called for this price target – he had already predicted similar heights for 2022 and later for 2023 ^[2].

On-Chain Data Paints More Sobering Picture

Market reality presents itself as significantly more subdued than Draper's vision. Data from CryptoQuant shows a noticeable cooling, with CEO Ki Young Ju noting that capital inflows into Bitcoin have largely dried up ^[2]. Instead, investors are rotating their capital into stocks and gold. Although institutional long-term holders are cushioning the selling pressure, they are not driving a rally due to the lack of new liquidity ^[2].

Technical indicators also urge caution: The MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) is declining despite high prices, suggesting that unrealized gains in the network are growing more slowly and investors are using current strength for distribution ^[2]. A massive 50 percent crash seems unlikely according to Ki Young Ju, as actors like MicroStrategy will not dump their holdings of over 673,000 BTC on the market ^[2]. Nevertheless, investors must prepare for a tough sideways phase until macroeconomic impulses revive the market ^[2].

Ray Dalio: Gold Significantly Beats U.S. Stocks

Ray Dalio, founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, offers a fundamentally different perspective. In a year-end blog post, he emphasizes that the largest returns came from the depreciation of money – particularly the U.S. dollar – as well as from the underperformance of U.S. stocks compared to gold and foreign markets ^[1].

Dalio's conclusion is clear: "The best investment of the year was long gold (65 percent return in U.S. dollars), which outperformed the S&P 500 by 47 percent" ^[1]. Put another way: "The S&P fell 28 percent when measured in gold" ^[1]. Bonds also performed poorly – 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds achieved nine percent in U.S. dollars but lost 34 percent in gold ^[1].

For Dalio, this is a clear signal: "Debt securities look unattractive – especially at the long end of the curve" ^[1]. He remains sober about future developments: "Valuations are high, risk premiums are low – that suggests low future returns" ^[1]. His advice: "You should always be invested in the lowest-risk currency – and act tactically from there" ^[1].

XRP as "Hottest Trade" in Wall Street's Focus

Beyond Bitcoin, XRP is increasingly moving into the spotlight. U.S. financial network CNBC recently called XRP the "hottest crypto trade of the year," whose performance since the beginning of the year has surpassed both Bitcoin and Ethereum ^[3]. The reasons lie primarily in ETF dynamics: Unlike Bitcoin, XRP ETFs have already proven to be a stable anchor in the fourth quarter of 2025 ^[3].

The thesis receives support through a partnership between Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Ripple, which reportedly is exploring the use of Amazon Bedrock for analyzing the XRP Ledger ^[3]. Internal tests show that AI agents can reduce troubleshooting from several days to two to three minutes ^[3].

However, there are also warning signs: For the first time since their approval, XRP spot ETFs recorded net outflows, and on a daily basis, XRP posted a decline of more than 7 percent ^[3].