Ethereum Breaks $3,000 as Strategy Faces Potential Historic Quarterly Loss

Ethereum Rallies on Renewed Vision

Ethereum's price climbed 1.7% over a 24-hour period to reach $3,025, though trading volume declined by 23% to $12.4 billion ^[1]. The surge follows a New Year's message from Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, who emphasized the network's foundational vision as a "world computer" - a shared, neutral platform for applications operating independently of centralized intermediaries ^[1].

In his message posted on January 1, 2026, Buterin asserted that Ethereum's true challenge lies in fulfilling its original mission rather than following the latest cryptocurrency trends ^[1]. He highlighted that the vision centers on creating applications capable of functioning without fraud, censorship, or third-party control, even if their original developers disappear ^[1].

Buterin noted that Ethereum achieved significant progress in 2025, with gas limits increased, blob count raised, node software quality improved, and zkEVMs reaching performance milestones ^[1]. According to the co-founder, these developments made the network faster, more reliable, and better equipped to handle growth while maintaining its decentralized architecture ^[1].

Despite the recent price movement, Ethereum has declined 11% year-to-date ^[1]. The cryptocurrency experienced a sustained bearish trend after reaching an all-time high above $4,900 in the last quarter of 2025 ^[1].

Technical Indicators Signal Potential Recovery

Technical analysis shows Ethereum trading within a falling channel, with resistance at the $3,400 mid-line level ^[1]. The cryptocurrency has crossed above its 50-day Simple Moving Average at $3,006, suggesting buyers may be defending the previous support around $2,800 ^[1].

The Relative Strength Index currently stands at 51.72, having crossed above the 50-midline level, indicating building buying pressure ^[1]. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence shows the blue MACD line crossing above the orange signal line, pointing to potentially increasing positive momentum ^[1].

Strategy Confronts Accounting Volatility

Meanwhile, Bitcoin treasury company Strategy is heading toward a potential quarterly results shock following cryptocurrency market weakness in the year-end quarter ^[2]. Bitcoin's price fell significantly in the fourth quarter, trading around $88,000 at year-end - approximately 30% below its October high above $126,000 ^[2].

The decline carries particular consequences for Strategy due to new accounting standards. Since 2025, the company has valued its Bitcoin holdings according to the new U.S. standard ASU 2023-08 at fair value ^[2]. Under this method, price movements flow directly through the profit and loss statement rather than only reflecting impairments as previously ^[2].

This accounting treatment can create extreme quarterly volatility. In the third quarter of 2025, Strategy reported a net profit of approximately $2.8 billion ^[2]. Following the fourth-quarter price decline, the company now faces the prospect of a correspondingly large unrealized loss ^[2].

Growing Skepticism Over Treasury Model

Strategy currently holds 672,497 BTC with a market value recently standing at roughly $58.8 billion ^[2]. The company's stock declined significantly in 2025 while continuing to raise liquidity through share sales - in December alone, Strategy generated approximately $2.67 billion and used the proceeds to purchase additional Bitcoin ^[2]. Management is simultaneously building fiat reserves to cushion dividend and debt service obligations ^[2].

The shrinking premium of Strategy's stock price over its Bitcoin holdings indicates tightening valuation margins. At times, the company's market capitalization has traded close to the value of its held coins ^[2]. The narrower this premium becomes, the more difficult it grows to maintain the cycle of capital raising, additional cryptocurrency purchases, and rising stock valuations - particularly while the blockchain sector's leading currency fails to establish a sustainable trend reversal ^[2].

Adding further pressure, Strategy faces a January 15 decision from index provider MSCI regarding potential removal from its indices, which could trigger billions in outflows ^[2].