Fidelity Analyst Predicts $65K Bitcoin Bottom in 2026 While Technical Indicators Show Mixed Signals

Diverging Views on Bitcoin's Market Cycle

A Fidelity macro lead has made a contrarian call predicting a $65,000 Bitcoin bottom in 2026, marking what they believe will be the end of the current bull cycle ^[1]. This analysis stands in stark opposition to other prominent crypto analysts who anticipate continued upside for the cryptocurrency market.

Tom Shaughnessy, co-founder of crypto research firm Delphi Digital, expects Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs in 2026, following investor sentiment recovery from the record $19 billion crypto market crash that occurred at the beginning of October ^[1]. "Once that's worked through, we hit $BTC ATHs in 2026 as prices rubber band to reflect the progress outside 10/10," Shaughnessy stated ^[1].

Fundamental and Regulatory Drivers

The divergence in predictions reflects different interpretations of market fundamentals and regulatory developments. Shaughnessy indicated that crypto market valuations will be driven by the industry's "fundamental progress," including growing Wall Street implementations and regulatory developments ^[1].

Cathy Yoon, general counsel at crypto research firm Temporal and Solana block-building system Harmonic, told Cointelegraph that significant progress on US cryptocurrency legislation is expected. "I do expect 2026 to be another meaningful year for crypto regulation, but it will look different from the last one," Yoon said ^[1]. Policy experts predict such developments may bring more institutional investment to the crypto space ^[1].

Current Technical Analysis

Bitcoin's price action has shown signs of both weakness and potential recovery. The cryptocurrency traded above the $108,000 support level from July to October, touching its all-time high around $126,230 ^[2]. However, Bitcoin then underwent a correction within a falling channel pattern to the lower boundary around the $84,000 support area ^[2].

The price has consolidated with $94,000 acting as a barrier on the upside ^[2]. Bitcoin is currently trading below both the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), with the SMAs forming a death cross around $111,035 ^[2].

Despite these bearish indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing signs of a rebound, currently at 43 and climbing, indicating that buyers are regaining some control ^[2]. According to chart analysis, Bitcoin is nearing a breakout above the falling channel pattern as it aims for a bullish trend reversal in the long term ^[2].

If Bitcoin climbs above the channel, the next target could be around the SMAs, first at $94,007 (50-day SMA) and $108,108 (200-day SMA) ^[2]. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned negative, with the orange signal line crossing above the blue MACD line, signaling negative momentum ^[2].

Market Sentiment and Global Factors

Investor social sentiment took a significant hit earlier this week as Bitcoin dipped below $85,000 ^[1]. Bearish commentary has dominated social media platforms, including X, Reddit and Telegram, according to market intelligence platform Santiment ^[1].

Global economic factors continue to influence the crypto market. The Bank of Japan announced a 25-basis-point interest rate hike to 0.75%, its highest since 1995 ^[2]. The decision passed unanimously in a 9-0 vote following a two-day policy meeting ^[2]. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda cited growing confidence in the economic outlook as a key reason behind the hike ^[2].

Meanwhile, a Bloomberg analyst has warned that the crypto ETF boom may end in mass liquidations, as the crypto market continues to experience high levels of volatility ^[2].