Goldman Sachs Upgrades Coinbase as Whale Deposits Signal Mixed Market Sentiment

Goldman Sachs Backs Coinbase's Strategic Shift

Goldman Sachs has issued a buy recommendation for Coinbase stock, upgrading its rating based on the crypto exchange's pivot toward infrastructure services ^[1]. The investment bank raised its price target from $294 to $303, representing a potential 20% gain from the current trading price of $254 ^[1].

Goldman analyst James Yaro attributed the upgraded rating to Coinbase's evolving business model. "The shift by Coinbase to crypto infrastructure such as custody, staking and stablecoins indicates more stable revenue growth," Yaro told CNBC ^[1].

Aggressive Acquisition Strategy Pays Off

The exchange has pursued an aggressive diversification strategy through major acquisitions throughout 2025. In May, Coinbase purchased derivatives exchange Deribit for a record $2.9 billion, followed by the acquisition of token sales platform ECHO for $375 million in October ^[1]. Shortly before Christmas, the company announced the purchase of prediction market startup The Clearing Company ^[1].

These strategic moves have produced tangible financial results. Coinbase's "Subscriptions and Services" division generated approximately $747 million in revenue during Q3 2025, a dramatic increase from $145 million in the comparable quarter of 2021 ^[1].

Yaro emphasized the "maturation of the crypto ecosystem" with Coinbase positioned at the forefront of this development ^[1]. Since the beginning of the year, Coinbase stock has gained nearly 11% ^[1].

Warning Signs Emerge from Exchange Flow Data

While institutional sentiment toward crypto infrastructure appears positive, on-chain data reveals concerning market dynamics. Major cryptocurrency holders deposited $2.4 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum onto Binance during the past week, split nearly evenly between the two assets, marking the exchange's largest net inflow in a month ^[2].

However, CryptoOnchain warned in a note to CryptoQuant that "buying power is missing" ^[2]. The surge in deposits occurred without corresponding stablecoin inflows, which remained essentially flat at just $42 million for the week, primarily representing token movements between the Ethereum and Tron blockchains ^[2].

Accumulation Patterns Show Bearish Signals

Analysis of transaction sizes reveals a potentially troubling trend. The average Bitcoin deposit to Binance has jumped from 8-10 BTC to 22-26 BTC as whales transfer substantial amounts onto the platform ^[2]. Meanwhile, withdrawal sizes have declined sharply, with outflow transactions fluctuating in a "suppressed range" of 5.5 to 8.3 Bitcoin ^[2].

CryptoOnchain characterized these metrics as a "clear warning signal," noting that Bitcoin accumulation has stalled since October ^[2]. Large transfers from wallets to exchanges typically indicate "preparation for selling or the use of these assets as collateral in derivatives markets," according to the analysis ^[2].

"In other words, large-scale accumulation and the movement of Bitcoin into cold storage by major holders have drastically decreased," CryptoOnchain stated, adding that diminished appetite for long-term holding "could act as a significant headwind for price appreciation in the short to medium term" ^[2].

Bitcoin has gained 1.3% over the past day, settling at $92,600 after reaching a 24-hour high of $93,170 as trading activity resumes following the holiday period ^[2].