Institutional Accumulation Meets Sell-Side Pressure

Contradictory Signals Shape Institutional Bitcoin Behavior

The institutional Bitcoin market currently presents a divided picture: while the number of large Bitcoin wallets is approaching a historic high and ETF inflows underscore demand, the announced complete sell-off by a treasury company is creating counterpressure. These contradictory developments reveal the complexity of the current market phase and raise questions about short-term price development.

Despite a recovery toward $70,000, derivatives markets remain cautiously positioned. The discrepancy between positive accumulation trends and persistent skepticism among professional traders suggests a phase of reorientation in which new market structures are emerging.

The Facts

Analysts at Santiment report a notable trend: the number of Bitcoin wallets holding at least 100 BTC is about to break through the 20,000 mark. As of Thursday, 19,993 such wallets already existed, each holding the equivalent of approximately $6.71 million ^[1]. Santiment interprets this development as a healthy market signal: "When the number of 100+ BTC wallets grows, it indicates broader distribution across more large investors, rather than a small group controlling everything" ^[1].

This trend is viewed as an indicator of "less extreme consolidation at the top" and reduces the perceived risk that a few whales can significantly influence prices ^[1]. However, Santiment notes that the overall share of this cohort in the Bitcoin supply has remained unchanged—an indication that while new wallets are reaching the 100-BTC threshold, long-term holders are simultaneously selling. "This is why prices have remained under pressure," according to the analysis ^[1].

In stark contrast to this accumulation trend is the decision by Nasdaq-listed GD Culture Group (Ticker: GDC). The company announced it would liquidate its entire Bitcoin reserve of 7,500 BTC—at the current price, this corresponds to a value of approximately $510 million ^[2]. Notably, this BTC holding is significantly above the company's current market capitalization of about $210 million ^[2].

The sale proceeds are intended to flow into a $100 million share buyback program already announced on February 18, to be implemented over six months ^[2]. The decision comes against the backdrop of a significant valuation discrepancy: the ratio of market capitalization to net asset value is around 0.5, making GD Culture one of the companies with the largest discount among publicly traded Bitcoin treasury companies ^[2]. With 7,500 BTC, GD Culture ranks among the 15 largest Bitcoin treasury companies worldwide ^[2].

Meanwhile, ETF markets are showing mixed signals. U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $764 million over two trading days, which only partially offsets the $1.2 billion in outflows during the previous eight trading days ^[3]. Institutional activity suggests strong demand when prices fall below $65,000 ^[3].

Despite this demand, sentiment in derivatives markets remains subdued. The annualized premium for Bitcoin futures stood at only 2 percent on Thursday, well below the neutral threshold of 5 percent ^[3]. Bitcoin put options (sell options) traded at a 14 percent premium over equivalent call options (buy options)—an indicator that fear remains a dominant force ^[3]. In a neutral market environment, this indicator typically fluctuates between -6 and +6 percent ^[3].

Analysis & Context

Current developments reveal a fundamental reallocation within the institutional Bitcoin landscape. The impending breach of the 20,000-wallet threshold is historically significant: it demonstrates a democratization of the large investor segment. Instead of a few mega-whales, we're seeing a growing number of medium-sized institutional players, each building significant but not market-dominating positions.

GD Culture's decision initially appears to be a countertrend, but reveals a structural problem facing many treasury companies: the "NAV discount." When a company's market capitalization is significantly below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, a rational incentive emerges for liquidation and return of capital to shareholders. This case could set a precedent and put pressure on other similarly undervalued treasury companies to reconsider their strategies. However, the planned six-month sales period suggests that GD Culture does not want to flood the market—an important aspect for short-term price dynamics.

The divergence between positive spot signals (wallet growth, ETF inflows) and cautious derivatives markets is revealing. Professional traders are apparently pricing in additional risks that are not visible in pure accumulation data. This could be related to the uncertainties mentioned in the sources—from quantum computing concerns to institutional liquidation fears. The fact that Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the $75,000 mark despite positive fundamentals underscores this caution.

Historically, phases with similar contradictory signals were often transitional periods between market cycles. Broad accumulation by new large wallets alongside sales by individual players suggests a shift in ownership structure—from early investors to a new generation of institutional buyers. Such transitions are rarely painless, but can lead to more stable market structures in the medium term.

Conclusion

• The growing number of large Bitcoin wallets signals healthier wealth distribution and reduces whale risk, while simultaneous sales by long-term holders explain price pressure

• GD Culture's planned sale of 7,500 BTC over six months highlights the NAV discount problem facing treasury companies and could put other similarly undervalued firms under strategic pressure

• The discrepancy between positive ETF inflows and cautious derivatives markets suggests institutional reorientation, with new players accumulating while established actors hedge risks

• Professional traders remain skeptical despite recovery toward $70,000, as evidenced by low futures premiums and elevated put option premiums—a breakthrough above $75,000 requires restoration of confidence in derivatives markets

• The current phase represents less a clear trend than a transitional period in which Bitcoin's ownership structure is shifting from early to institutional investors—a process that requires time and volatility