Institutional Bitcoin Buying Surges 76% Above Mining Supply as ETFs Attract Over $1 Billion

Institutional Demand Outpaces New Supply

Institutional investors have returned as net buyers of Bitcoin, purchasing more of the digital asset than miners produced for eight consecutive days, according to data from quantitative Bitcoin fund Capriole Investments ^[1].

The buying pressure reached a peak on Monday when institutional demand exceeded newly mined Bitcoin supply by 76% ^[1]. This metric tracks purchases by corporate treasuries and US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, marking a significant shift after a period of uncertainty following two months of demand breakdown at the start of the year ^[1].

"Institutions are once again net buyers of Bitcoin," said Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole, in comments shared on social media ^[1].

Historical data suggests such buying patterns have preceded substantial price gains. Since 2020, when institutional buying has flipped positive versus newly mined supply, Bitcoin has averaged price increases of 109%, with the most recent flip triggering 41% upside ^[1].

ETF Inflows Signal Market Reset

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $697 million in inflows during the second trading day of 2026 on Tuesday, bringing total net positive inflows to over $1.1 billion across the first two trading days of the year ^[2]. The renewed demand follows a challenging end to 2025, with the funds experiencing $3.48 billion in outflows during November and $1.09 billion in December ^[2].

According to Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs were the primary driver of Bitcoin's momentum in 2025 ^[2].

The broader cryptocurrency ETF market also showed strength, with spot Ether ETFs attracting $168 million on Monday for their second consecutive day of inflows, while spot Solana ETFs recorded $16.8 million in investments, marking 20 days of successive inflows ^[2].

Clean-Slate Effect Drives Renewed Interest

Market analysts point to a "clean-slate effect" as investors reposition for the new year. Matrixport highlighted that cryptocurrency markets benefited from a reset after $30 billion of Bitcoin and Ether futures leverage unwound since a $19 billion market crash in October ^[2].

"Entering 2026, positioning is far leaner, speculative excess has been flushed out, and without the weight of crowded trades, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies now have room to follow their natural trajectory, which may well be higher," Matrixport stated ^[2].

Lacie Zhang, research analyst at Bitget Wallet, described the renewed demand as reflecting a "rebalancing phase" driven by geopolitical risk and liquidity positioning, with fundamental market drivers remaining constructive despite elevated uncertainty ^[2]. Zhang noted that institutional buyers absorbing supply could support a near-term rebound, potentially pushing Bitcoin toward $105,000 and Ethereum to test $3,600 ^[2].

Historical Patterns Suggest Upside Potential

Network economist Timothy Peterson highlighted historical precedent favoring a return above $100,000 for Bitcoin this month. Bitcoin has experienced three consecutive months of declines, a pattern that has occurred only nine times since 2015 ^[1].

"What happens next? 1 month later, Bitcoin was positive 67% of the time. However, the 3 negative instances were all in 2018 and marked the end of that bear market," Peterson wrote ^[1]. He calculated an average gain of 15% following such periods ^[1].

Bitcoin recovered to $94,000 after Monday's Wall Street open, reaching its highest levels since mid-November after a nearly 40% drawdown from October's $126,200 all-time highs ^[1].

However, not all indicators point to immediate upside. Data from crypto intelligence platform Nansen showed that "smart money" traders—the industry's most successful traders by returns—were net short on Bitcoin for $108 million, with nearly $19 million in net short positions added during the past 24 hours ^[2].