Token Unlocks Put Crypto Projects Under Pressure: HYPE Holds Strong, Aptos Stumbles

Contrasting Reactions to Token Unlocks

Token unlocks present a regular test of endurance for crypto projects. While Hyperliquid masterfully navigates its first major stress test, Aptos faces mounting pressure from ongoing unlocks and structural weaknesses. The divergent market reactions demonstrate how crucial trust in teams and fundamental data are to project success.

HYPE Shows Resilience Despite Million-Token Unlock

On the one-year anniversary of the Token Generation Event, Hyperliquid triggered the long-feared "day of reckoning." With the unlock of 2.66 percent of circulating supply, many market participants expected significant selling pressure ^[1]. However, these concerns proved largely unfounded.

On-chain data shows that a central team wallet transferred 2.6 million HYPE worth approximately 90 million US dollars from staking to the spot market, yet continues to hold the lion's share of 240 million HYPE—roughly 8.36 billion US dollars—in the staking contract ^[1]. Even more significantly, Hyperlabs itself has immediately "restaked" 854,253 HYPE according to observers ^[1].

Market participants interpret this move as a clear signal of confidence. The team demonstrates it has no intention of flooding the market with liquidity in the short term ^[1]. Additionally, test transactions of one HYPE each to eleven different addresses were observed, presumably the wallets of eleven team members, suggesting a controlled distribution ^[1].

Aptos Reaches All-Time Low

In stark contrast stands the development at Aptos. The once-touted "Solana killer" Layer-1 blockchain struggles with massive price losses and trades at 2.228 US dollars, representing a decline of approximately 1.29 percent within 24 hours ^[2]. The current market capitalization stands at around 1.64 billion US dollars ^[2].

The causes for the downfall are manifold. Since April 2024, the price has been in a clear downtrend that nearly coincides with increased token unlocks ^[2]. The long-criticized tokenomics are now catching up with the project in full force. The situation is exacerbated by the surprising departure of founder Mo Shaikh a year ago, which caused considerable uncertainty in the ecosystem ^[2].

Weak Fundamentals Add Pressure

Fundamentally, Aptos's situation appears strained as well. The blockchain currently generates only a few thousand US dollars in daily revenues—an extremely weak figure for a Layer-1 chain with such ambitions ^[2]. The sole bright spot remains sustained stablecoin growth.

Technically, the price trades below the EMA-20 at 2.268 US dollars and shows a sequence of lower highs and lower lows ^[2]. Short-term support lies at 2.175 US dollars, with stronger support at 2.149 US dollars ^[2]. The RSI of 46.6 signals no clear momentum on the buying side ^[2].

Growing Competitive Pressure

With Monad's market entry, competitive pressure in the already oversaturated Layer-1 sector continues to grow ^[2]. Aptos risks permanently losing ground in the competition for developers, capital, and users. The divergent reactions to token unlocks between HYPE and Aptos underscore that ultimately, trust in teams and solid fundamentals determine a project's success.