Tool · Scenario

Bitcoin Halving Simulator

From each halving to the cycle top, Bitcoin has risen less every time - the "peak multiples" shrink (diminishing returns). This simulator takes exactly that pattern from the completed cycles and projects the next cycle after the 2028 halving. You choose how hard the damping continues (conservative, moderate, aggressive). An absolute price only appears if you enter an assumed halving price - so the number is explicitly your assumption, not our forecast.

Important
This is NOT a forecast. The simulator only computes your own assumptions - based on a historical pattern that need not repeat. Not financial advice.
Diminishing returns
Projected peak
2.2x
of the halving price
Peak price (your assumption)
$143k
2.2x × $64k
Peak timing (approx)
Sep 2029
~day 525 after halving
0.1x1x10x100xHalving+1 J+2 J+3 J2.2x
Grey lines = completed cycles (index = price ÷ halving price), dashed = your projected cycle, ● = projected peak. Hover for date & multiple.

Methodology & data

From our own price database: per completed cycle the peak multiple = highest index (price ÷ price at halving) in the window day 0-720 after the halving. The next peak multiple = last multiple × decline factor (conservative = smallest, moderate = geometric mean, aggressive = largest of the historical factors). The projected curve shape is the average of the normalized cycle shapes. The absolute peak price = multiple × your assumed 2028 halving price. Small sample (a handful of cycles), purely illustrative - not a forecast, not financial advice.

Frequently asked questions

01What are "diminishing returns" for Bitcoin?

The multiple from the halving price to the cycle top has shrunk from cycle to cycle. A young, small market can multiply more easily than a large one. The simulator reads this shrinking multiple from the completed cycles.

02Is this a price forecast?

No, explicitly not. The simulator computes an assumption chosen by YOU (how hard the damping continues and what the 2028 halving price is). We are not saying it will happen. Past patterns need not repeat.

03How is the next cycle projected?

From the completed cycles we compute each cycle's peak multiple (top ÷ halving price) and the average curve shape. The next peak multiple follows the historical decline: conservative = the steepest decline so far, moderate = the geometric mean, aggressive = the mildest decline.

04Why the cycle after 2028 and not the current one?

The current cycle (2024 halving) has already topped - we are in its down phase. A peak can only be projected forward, so the simulator looks at the next cycle (2028 halving).

05Is this financial advice?

No. A pure what-if tool based on historical patterns. Not a recommendation.