Bitcoin RSI Bottom Signal
The weekly RSI(14) reflects price action only - no fundamentals. Since 2011 it has exited its normal band downward 7 times (below 35). In 60% of the resolved cases the cycle bottom fell within ±13 weeks (median 3 weeks) - but not every signal was a bottom. RSI currently reads 39.3 (in the normal band). Very small sample (n=7) - this describes the past, not a forecast.
Weekly RSI across history
The weekly RSI almost always oscillates inside the "normal band" (35-70, grey). Only 7 times in 15 years did it drop below (orange dots) - each time sitting at or near a major cycle bottom. So the chart shows how rare the signal is and when it fired; what price did next is in the table below.
Black line = weekly RSI(14) · grey line = price (log) · red zone below 35 = oversold · ● = signal. At each signal the price line sits at a low.
What happened next (base rates)
| Horizon | Median | Positive | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +3 % | 5/7 | -15 % … +45 % |
| 3 months | +2 % | 4/6 | -20 % … +99 % |
| 6 months | +92 % | 3/5 | -46 % … +132 % |
| 12 months | +90 % | 3/5 | -25 % … +1,016 % |
Return from the signal's close, across all 7 signals. "Median" = middle value, not average.
The individual signals
| Week | RSI | Price | Wk to bottom | to bottom | +6M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 14, 2011 | 33.8 | $2 | 0 | +0 % | +131 % |
| September 29, 2014 | 31.2 | $317 | 15 | -34 % | -19 % |
| November 19, 2018 | 30.5 | $3,717 | 3 | -14 % | +132 % |
| March 9, 2020 | 33.0 | $5,367 | 0 | +0 % | +92 % |
| May 9, 2022 | 33.6 | $30,358 | 26 | -46 % | -46 % |
| January 26, 2026 | 32.7 | $77,057 | 21* | -23 % | - |
| June 1, 2026 | 34.2 | $63,181 | 3* | -6 % | - |
* bottom episode not yet resolved (current cycle).
Methodology & data
Frequently asked questions
01What is the RSI bottom signal?
The weekly RSI(14) rarely leaves its "normal band" (35-70) to the downside. We mark every week it falls below 35 (one signal per episode, reset at RSI 50) and show what price did afterwards.
02How reliable is this?
There have been only 7 such signals since 2011 - a very small sample. The base rates are illustrative, not statistically robust, and several signals can share the same cycle bottom. Past patterns need not repeat.
03Is this financial advice?
No. This page only shows historical price statistics from our own database. Not a recommendation.