Statistics · Cycles & signals

Bitcoin Seasonality

Does Bitcoin have a "best month"? Over the 13 complete years since 2013 (2013-2025), November was on average the strongest calendar month (avg +40 %, up in 8 of 13 years), September the weakest (avg -4 %). All computed from monthly closes in our own database. That's only 13 values per month - a rough guide that describes the past, not a forecast.

Strongest month
November
Ø +40 % · 8/13 up
Weakest month
September
Ø -4 % · 5/13 up
Most reliable
February
77 % positive · Ø +12 %
July avg (hist.)
+8 %
9/13 years up

Heatmap: year × month

Each cell is that month's return (close to close) - green for up, red for down, stronger the bigger the move. The bottom row shows each month's average across all 13 years.

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2013
+57
+63
+176
+46
-7
-30
+11
+34
-4
+61
+445
-34
2014
+10
-28
-21
-2
+40
+4
-9
-19
-18
-13
+10
-16
2015
-28
+10
-4
-2
-3
+13
+9
-19
+2
+32
+20
+15
2016
-13
+16
-4
+8
+16
+27
-5
-9
+5
+16
+5
+30
2017
-1
+25
-11
+25
+73
+9
+12
+66
-8
+47
+53
+43
2018
-28
+5
-33
+32
-19
-16
+23
-9
-6
-4
-37
-5
2019
-9
+12
+7
+28
+61
+33
-11
-4
-14
+12
-19
-5
2020
+30
-7
-25
+37
+8
-4
+24
+4
-9
+29
+39
+50
2021
+13
+34
+35
-3
-35
-5
+19
+14
-8
+39
-4
-20
2022
-17
+7
+11
-16
-18
-40
+26
-15
-3
+4
-17
-2
2023
+40
+1
+21
+3
-8
+12
-4
-10
+3
+28
+9
+13
2024
+2
+40
+17
-17
+14
-9
+5
-10
+8
+11
+37
-3
2025
+10
-18
-2
+14
+11
+2
+8
-6
+5
-4
-17
-3
Avg
+5
+12
+13
+12
+10
0
+8
+1
-4
+20
+40
+5
-35%
+35%

Months compared

MonthAvg returnMedianPositive
January+5 %+2 %7/13
February+12 %+10 %10/13
March+13 %-2 %6/13
April+12 %+8 %8/13
May+10 %+8 %7/13
June0 %+2 %7/13
July+8 %+9 %9/13
August+1 %-9 %4/13
September-4 %-4 %5/13
October+20 %+16 %10/13
November+40 %+9 %8/13
December+5 %-3 %5/13

"Avg" = mean (skewed by outliers), "Median" = middle value (more robust). "Positive X/13" = the month closed up in that many of the 13 years (2013-2025).

Methodology & data

Monthly closes from our own price database (last price of each UTC calendar month, USD historically real). Monthly return = close ÷ previous close - 1. We use complete years only, 2013-2025 (13 values per month); the current year does not count yet, and before 2013 the extreme early years distort the averages. "Avg" is the arithmetic mean, "Median" the middle value. The heatmap colour saturates at ±35%. Only a few years per month - a rough orientation, not financial advice.

Frequently asked questions

01Which month is historically best for Bitcoin?

Since 2013, November was strongest on average (avg +40 %, positive in 8 of 13 years). The most reliable month (highest hit rate) is February at 77 % positive years.

02What is "Uptober"?

"Uptober" is the nickname for October as a strong Bitcoin month. In our data since 2013, October averages +20 % (10/13 years up).

03Is seasonality reliable?

Only loosely. It's only 13 years per month (2013-2025) - few data points. The average is skewed by a few extreme years (mostly the early ones); the median is more robust. We show both. Past patterns need not repeat.

04Why start in 2013?

Before 2013 Bitcoin was so small and illiquid that single months swung by four-digit percentages - that would make every later average useless. From 2013 the monthly patterns are more meaningful.

05Is this financial advice?

No. This page only shows historical price statistics from our own database. Not a recommendation.