Statistics · Cycles & signals

Where is Bitcoin in the cycle?

An honest situational picture instead of a forecast. Four independent signals show where Bitcoin stands today - power-law "Deep value", cycle timing "Bear" (day 827 after the halving), market regime "Capitulation" (1-year return -45 %) and weekly RSI 39 (normal band). We deliberately do NOT fuse them into one number. The "glimpse forward" comes from the chart: how the 3 past cycles actually continued from this exact cycle day - three separate lines, so the small sample stays visible. Not a forecast, not financial advice.

Where Bitcoin stands today

Power-Law
Deep value
percentile 10
Cycle timing
Bear
day 827 after halving
Market regime
Capitulation
1y return -45 %
Weekly RSI
normal band
RSI 39

Four independent lenses - deliberately kept separate, not fused into one number. Each chip links to its detail page.

How the three past cycles ran from this point

Each completed halving cycle (2012, 2016, 2020) rebased to "100 = today", from today's cycle day (827). Left of the TODAY line the path so far (current cycle in bold), right of it how it actually continued back then - as a × multiple of today's level. Three lines instead of a smoothed band: the spread IS the honest message.

×0.01×0.1×1×10-364-182018236454672891010922016 ×22012 ×1.32020 ×1.1TODAY · day 827
Hover the chart. Right of the TODAY line: how the three past cycles actually continued from this point (× multiple of today). Three lines = three data points.

Base rates: what happened after RSI-bottom signals

From 7 past weekly RSI signals - the share that was higher after X months, with an honest Wilson 95% interval. With such a small sample the range is wide; that is the point.

after 1 month
5/7
higher · Wilson 36-92%
after 3 months
4/6
higher · Wilson 30-90%
after 6 months
3/6
higher · Wilson 19-81%
after 12 months
3/5
higher · Wilson 23-88%

Context

Seasonality July
+9.2 %
median · 9/13 years up
Volatility 30d
30 %
annualised, realised

Methodology & honest limits

Every number is a deterministic count/order statistic over our own daily closes - no model, no simulation, no AI text. Location: power-law zone (residual percentile), cycle day/phase (days since halving), market regime (1-year return, thresholds -35%/+100%), weekly RSI(14). The three cycle lines = the real price path per completed cycle, rebased to 100 at today's cycle day (no median/cone - three raw paths). Base rates = forward returns per RSI signal, hit rate as a fraction with n, plus a Wilson 95% interval. DELIBERATELY NOT included: an aggregated overall probability, a score or a price target - with 3 cycles that would be false precision. Purely historical - past patterns need not repeat. Not financial advice.

Frequently asked questions

01Can this predict the Bitcoin price?

No - by design. The page fuses nothing into a price target or a probability. It only shows where Bitcoin stands today across several signals and how price actually behaved in the three past cycles from a comparable point. Three cycles are far too few for a serious prediction; the three separate lines make exactly that visible.

02Why no overall probability or traffic light?

Because a single aggregated number on such a tiny sample (3 complete cycles, ~7 RSI signals) creates a false precision that cannot be falsified - exactly the kind of content we deliberately avoid. We prefer to show the signals separately, honestly and with uncertainty (confidence intervals).

03What do the base rates with "Wilson 95%" mean?

For each past RSI-bottom signal we compute the forward return. "5 of 6 were higher after 12 months" is the raw hit rate - but with only 6 cases it is extremely uncertain. The Wilson 95% interval gives the honest range the "true" rate could lie in. We show it as prominently as the rate itself.

04Why do the signals often point the same way?

Because they historically fire at the same point in the cycle - they do not confirm each other, they measure the same event from different angles. Four aligned signals are not "four times as certain".

05Where does the data come from?

All from our own price database (daily closes, USD real, EUR at the ECB reference rate), computed deterministically - no AI text. Every number is verifiable via the linked detail pages (power-law, cycle, RSI bottom).